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Originally Posted by tomb1 Why the check-raise? Because you take your money and go home with all the money you're going to get. After Dad bet on the turn, that was the most he was going to put into the pot unles he hit his straight. Nothing good can happen on the river to get you more money...you'll only lose. (OK, OK, maybe he hits his second pair on the river and pays you off, but that's a remote chance vs. him folding vs. all the other ways you can lose.) |
But the person with the Aces doesn't know the other person has an inside straight draw who will fold on a river bet if they miss. You are looking at this hand with complete information--you don't have that playing the hand. You can't examine the hand saying you would check-raise on the turn because you know a suck out will happen on the river--you are never going to know that when you play. You have to look at the probablities. What someone has, what could beat you, etc. Like I pointed out in the my first post--you are a 91% favorite to win the hand with one card to come. That means 91% of the time even when the river card hits you still win. Why push away more money on the river? You are saying well because the busted inside straight isn't going to bet or call on the river. But you don't know that the person has a busted straight.
One of the last hands you would put someone on is an inside straight draw. Why would you? If someone is betting on every street you have to give them credit for having something most of the time. Two pair, Ace/rag, maybe even a lower set of trips. When this hand is played most of people (95% of them) betting pre-flop, then betting on the flop and then betting on the turn are going to have one of these three hands. You don't want them to go away as they are going to give you more money on the river. Yeah the bluffer and the busted inside straight aren't going to pay you off but 95% of the time that person isn't going to be playing that hand. And that means you are more likely to make money on the river so you don't want them out of the hand.