[TheMightyJim2k]

while I agree that you should fold the 88 here, you conclusions below are incorrect.

You are putting in 33% of the money so if you have more than 33% chance to win you have an equity overlay and the call would be +EV and net you money in the long run. Since we don't know their actual hands, I think that we all agree that this hand is at best marginally +EV, and at worst a big loser so that is why we all suggested the fold.

But if you knew you were going to win 36% of the time, and folded because of this fact, you would be making a mistake that would cost you money in the long run. This is a case of confusing equity with win% which is pretty common, but can be costly if you consistently get confused.

hope that helped.

Originally Posted by Colquhoun

Here is why this is so dangerous. Even if you KNOW they do not have an over-pair or a powerhouse like AK....you can STILL be in trouble. Even though you have the best cards (by a fraction), the odds are against you winning anything here. Look at this scenario:



You have only a 36% chance to win against an opponent holding J 10os and another holding a very weak ace. 88 plays fine in a tournament when acting first, and pushing all-in. You would be getting better odds playing Keno with that 50 bucks.

[Colquhoun]

Originally Posted by TheMightyJim2k

while I agree that you should fold the 88 here, you conclusions below are incorrect.

You are putting in 33% of the money so if you have more than 33% chance to win you have an equity overlay and the call would be +EV and net you money in the long run. Since we don't know their actual hands, I think that we all agree that this hand is at best marginally +EV, and at worst a big loser so that is why we all suggested the fold.

But if you knew you were going to win 36% of the time, and folded because of this fact, you would be making a mistake that would cost you money in the long run. This is a case of confusing equity with win% which is pretty common, but can be costly if you consistently get confused.

hope that helped.

When I put this scenario together, I was only focused on the fact that 88 is so poor against 2 others, but i did not consider the +EV. I realize we are only talking 3% here, but you are correct.
But chances are in this hand, the opponents hold better than the cards in my scenario...and that is why it is considered by most to be an insta-fold. Thanks for pointing out the pot value here.

[squiggly]

While I agree with your information 100% and with everybody so far, I'm curious as to how your decision to fold would be swayed by the fact that the two remaining people in the pot have gone all in twice in the last 3 or 4 hands, with marginal all-in hands.

Why oh why couldn't these donkeys have decided to go all-in AFTER the flop... lol...

[tomb1]

Originally Posted by Colquhoun

But chances are in this hand, the opponents hold better than the cards in my scenario...and that is why it is considered by most to be an insta-fold. Thanks for pointing out the pot value here.

The interesting thing about a situation like this -- often your two opponents both have one Ace. Each of them is in the hand trying to pair their Ace, but you are way in front (50%+) because there are only 2 Aces left in the deck and not 3. For example, 88 vs. AT (one overcard besides the ace) and A6 (suited), your 88 is 52% to win.

So when you look at the various scenarios, there are several ways to win:
88 vs Ax and Ax -- clear favorite
88 vs Ax and Kx -- small favorite, under 50%
88 vs Ax and smaller PP -- big favorite, best possible situation
88 vs. Ax and larger PP -- oops, you're screwed. This is the one you really worry about.

[Colquhoun]

Originally Posted by squiggly

I'm curious as to how your decision to fold would be swayed by the fact that the two remaining people in the pot have gone all in twice in the last 3 or 4 hands, with marginal all-in hands.

Because you honestly have ZERO information on what they do have....it could be junk, but you could easily be dead, too...if you feel like a gamble, then go for it. I prefer to have a better holding going into this race.