[hachkc]

Originally Posted by imthatguy

I'm going to guess that ruabout has got a medium pair like, nines. And kenya has Ace rag, because this is a 10+1 and he's a desperate donk.

Don't forget about the initial raiser either. Also, I would put kenya on at worst AK/AQ and more realistically a mid-high pair. Now given jojo's comments, I'd be surprised if its worse than AK/AQ or 99. He/she has over 1200 chips and the blinds are only 30/60; no reason to be pushing into 2 raisers without a strong hand. IMO, without AK, AA, KK or QQ, kenya should have auto folded with 2 raises in front.

[w16227]

Originally Posted by TheMightyJim2k

i think jojo just poses these questions so he can take notes on our responses and use them against us in the tourney on thursday......

lol - unfortounately, he has played enough against me that it does not really matter.

He knows I own him

[tikipirate]

Well If you knew that no one had AA-JJ then I put one of them on a mid-sized pair and the other on a steal. I don't know; without knowing the players style I'd almost say that kenyaswift was trying to making a steal with something like KQ or JT, or perhaps mid-sized suited connectors. If you could know that no one had AA-JJ then the probablity that I would call goes up.

[hachkc]

Originally Posted by tikipirate

without knowing the players style I'd almost say that kenyaswift was trying to making a steal with something like KQ or JT,

After kenya's raise, there is 2085 in the pot. If kenya's trying to steal, ruabout is getting just under 3:1 odds to call (735 more); not optimal conditions to perform a steal unless you have a good read on your opponent.

[tikipirate]

Originally Posted by hachkc

After kenya's raise, there is 2085 in the pot. If kenya's trying to steal, ruabout is getting just under 3:1 odds to call (735 more); not optimal conditions to perform a steal unless you have a good read on your opponent.

Yea, you are right; he is getting 3:1 odds while only risking 25% of his stack. I should have noted that I'm just starting to try and analyze problems like this .

[jojobinks]

Full Tilt Poker Game #1355275743: $10 + $1 Tournament (9227200), Table 56 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:39:42 ET - 2006/12/04
Seat 1: ruabout (3,430)
Seat 2: rhodridgeback (2,590)
Seat 3: kenyaswift (1,275)
Seat 4: WVU_KC (1,037)
Seat 5: coldeeze (2,783)
Seat 6: mwfeldman (3,900)
Seat 7: J Mountclair (2,810)
Seat 8: Hill15 (1,145)
Seat 9: Frogeyes (3,455)
coldeeze posts the small blind of 30
mwfeldman posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mwfeldman [Ks As]
J Mountclair folds
Hill15 raises to 180
Frogeyes folds
ruabout raises to 540
rhodridgeback folds
kenyaswift raises to 1,275, and is all in
WVU_KC folds
coldeeze folds
mwfeldman folds
Hill15 calls 965, and is all in
ruabout calls 735
kenyaswift shows [Ad Js]
Hill15 shows [Ah Th]
ruabout shows [8h 8s]
*** FLOP *** [7h 8c 4h]
*** TURN *** [7h 8c 4h] [Qs]
*** RIVER *** [7h 8c 4h Qs] [8d]
kenyaswift shows a pair of Eights
ruabout shows four of a kind, Eights
ruabout wins the side pot (260) with four of a kind, Eights
Hill15 shows a pair of Eights
ruabout wins the main pot (3,525) with four of a kind, Eights
Hill15 stands up
kenyaswift stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3,785 Main pot 3,525. Side pot 260. | Rake 0
Board: [7h 8c 4h Qs 8d]
Seat 1: ruabout showed [8h 8s] and won (3,785) with four of a kind, Eights
Seat 2: rhodridgeback didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: kenyaswift showed [Ad Js] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 4: WVU_KC (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: coldeeze (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: mwfeldman (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: J Mountclair didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: Hill15 showed [Ah Th] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 9: Frogeyes didn't bet (folded)

If i were to push (i'd never call), i'm assuming hill calls.

if ruobout calls all in with 88
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,086,008 games 0.032 secs 33,937,750 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.3702 % 34.29% 00.08% { 8h8s }
Hand 2: 17.7876 % 17.35% 00.43% { AdJs }
Hand 3: 20.3615 % 19.93% 00.43% { AhTh }
Hand 4: 27.4807 % 27.05% 00.43% { AsKs }


if ruobout folds his 88:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,370,754 games 0.005 secs 274,150,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 21.5065 % 20.30% 01.21% { AdJs }
Hand 2: 25.4139 % 24.21% 01.21% { AhTh }
Hand 3: 53.0796 % 51.87% 01.21% { AsKs }

i think he folds it 75% of the time, given the action.

my ev, then.
=25%*((27.5%*5940)-(72.5%*3840)) = -287.625 <--- if both hill and ruo call
=75%*((53%*3050)-(47%*1210)) = 785.85 <--- if i can get 88 to fold.

total ev = 785.85-287.625 = 498

so my expected value is about 500, IF i know that no one has me dominated. but if i do push, i'm busted about 40% of the time and hurt badly another 20% of the time. and of course if someone does have KK or AA (as they were quite likely to do), it's much worse.

here's the point: it's slightly EV to push, given ALL the information. but it's better to be alive (and with plenty of chips). lots of you guys made that point too, so bravo.

w16227 made a good point, btw, which is that a lot of AK's value is in fold equity, which i've pretty much lost, given the action. if you can't push with it, and can afford to fold it, that's okay, especially in a multiway joint.

so good news, i made a good laydown (i thought it was purty easy).
bad news, i was crippled 80 minutes later with this hand

[hachkc]

Wild hand, can't believe kenya pushed into 2 raisers with AJo. I can see hill calling simply based on pot odds with the assumption that ruabout will call which he just about has to if hill calls (nice circular logic). My guess is if you pushed, hill probably calls but I'm guessing ruabout would have probably folded but you never know.

[TheMightyJim2k]

After seeing your analysis I'm still not sure if I knew everyone's hand that I wouldn't push. I just can't see the ruabout the other big stack (the 88 calling) my big stack all-in 3rd bet more than 5% of the time, so I think I'm getting myself in a dominating position here most of the time with a LOT of chips in the pot to pick up.

If you assume that the 88 is calling a push 75% of the time I guess I'm probably folding as well.

that being said I think we all agree that without knowing that these guys are freaking morons we would all fold....

[hachkc]

Originally Posted by TheMightyJim2k

that being said I think we all agree that without knowing that these guys are freaking morons we would all fold....

Agree but the only horrible play there was really kenya pushing into 2 raisers with AJo. Hill had ATs as a short stack so he makes a small raise hoping to either take it down or get heads up without committing a large part of his stack. ruabout is trying to isolate against a small stack with his PP but then kenya throws a wrench into it by pushing as another small stack. Hill could get away from his hand after a raise and reraise but may think this is his best chance to move up in the tourney by tripling up. Once hill calls, ruabout is getting over 4:1 to call which is a pretty easy call at that point.

Basically, one bad play (AJo push) cascaded into a cluster **** of a hand with 2 previous decent to marginal plays.

[TheMightyJim2k]

I personally think raising to 540 over a nearly pot committed small stack from UTG+1 is with 88 is a pretty bad play at this stage in the tourney. This time he was in his best possible scenario with the raise on a semi-steal, but even so he's only a coin flip.

This just goes to show you that while online cash game play is significant tighter than live play, online tourney's are still the donkfests that they were when poker blew up 3 years ago.