[jojobinks]

after winning the feldman family 2005 championship, i came home for some sng action.

here's a little taste of how it went:

in this tournament, i also had AA twice and QQ to finish it.

i played 10 sng's tonight, with 3 wins, one second, and a third. goot day, it was.

[jldecarlo]

Pocket kings 3 of 4 hands. That's a nice streak (note the jealousy in my typing).


Congrats.

L

[WINTERS]

these are the instances that make me believe there is something more to online poker.


how many live games have you ever been delt KK 3 out of 4 hands?

[jojobinks]

never happened in real life. but...

i've played 100k hands online in the last 2 years or so.

if, in an average live session, i get 30 hands an hour, that means in order to play that many hands in my lifetime (i've been playing for 20 years or so), i'd have had to play 3333 hours in my life.

if my average session is 4 hours or so (i have little casino poker experience), that means i've had to play in 833 live games. i happen to know that the actual number is much less, more like 3 or 4 hundred.

so, should i be shocked that weird things happen online? i'm playing a massive number of hands!

is anyone able to do the math? what's the likelihood that KK is dealt to me 3/4 hands? i sort of guessed at how the math works, and got something, but don't have much confidence in it.

[jldecarlo]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

is anyone able to do the math? what's the likelihood that KK is dealt to me 3/4 hands? i sort of guessed at how the math works, and got something, but don't have much confidence in it.

The problem is formulating the question. What are your chances of getting KK 3 of 4 hands? What about the same hand in 3 of 4 hands? A very good hand 3 of 4 times?

It all gets back to what you said about playing tons of online hands, as well as the human tendency to find patterns in everything.

L

[cnw400]

Very good article on just this point a few issues back in CardPlayer by Lee Jones. He talks about some of the incredible things that happen at PokerStars and does the math based on the millions of hands dealt each day.

At this moment there are 51,000 people playing at PS (2 am est) If they each get 2 hands a minute, that's over 100,000 hands per minute a 2 in the morning! Odd things will happen.

On that note, a guy at one of my tables tonight hit a runner runner Royal Flush.

[shadesofgrey]

Originally Posted by jldecarlo

The problem is formulating the question. What are your chances of getting KK 3 of 4 hands? What about the same hand in 3 of 4 hands? A very good hand 3 of 4 times?

It all gets back to what you said about playing tons of online hands, as well as the human tendency to find patterns in everything.

L

I was watching a tourny on tv and the guy equated the experience gained playing poker on the internet for a year to 7 years in a brick and mortar due to the volume of hands seen... like dog years - LOL.

as per the stats question - it shouldnt matter what hand it is - only the fact that it is the same paired hand repeating 3 out of 4 hands. Getting KK 3 out of 4 times is the same as getting 22 3 of 4 times.

one parameter will be the number of players at the table - because they will consume extra cards from the deck.

another difference will be the fact that you have 4 kings - so basically you can catch a K K one time and K K another.... what would be crazy is if they were the same exact cards each time. If you hit that you should be playing megabucks more often.

I am stuck on a plane tomorrow - maybe I will take a crack at it...

[jojobinks]

how many players are at the table matters not. are my chances of getting kk better headsup than at a full table? nope.

but you are right, it's the same as getting any pair 3/4.

[jldecarlo]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

how many players are at the table matters not. are my chances of getting kk better headsup than at a full table? nope.

but you are right, it's the same as getting any pair 3/4.

And really, the first KK doesn't count either, unless you call the start of the run. If you don't announce ahead of time, "I am going to start my run of pocket kings NOW," you really just waited to get a pocket pair and then saw what happend afterwards.

L

[jojobinks]

Originally Posted by jldecarlo

And really, the first KK doesn't count either, unless you call the start of the run. If you don't announce ahead of time, "I am going to start my run of pocket kings NOW," you really just waited to get a pocket pair and then saw what happend afterwards.

L

you lost me there. as i see it, this thing happened. in a span of 4 hands, i got KK three times. the question (afterward) is, in a series of 4 hands, what is the likelihood of getting KK at least 3 times?

why would the first one not count?