[coyote]

I play in a weekly home tourney, usually 20-30 players. Last night was only 14. To set up the situation, we're down to 4 players, 3 get paid: (50 - 100 - 200 structure)

I'm in second chip position UTG (T4500-5000 approx). blinds are 300-600. Chip leader is in the BB. He's got me covered by 10x probably. Other two players are getting short stacked. I pick up KQo. I raise to T1800. 2 folds, and the BB says he can push all in and there is no way I can call because were on the bubble and the other two players are short stacks. He pushes. I go into the tank, because he's pretty much right. I fold, he shows AJo. Good fold. (friggin dealer decided to rabbit hunt the board and it came KQxTQ) so that sucked!

I think If I was going to play that hand, I should have raised all in preflop, that way the BB can't put me in a bad spot with a reraise. But that would be stupid too, because I'm in good position to make the money. Couple hands later I had to fold KJs in a blind to the big stacks raise.

Anyway, one of the short stacks busts out, we're in the money. I'm still in 2nd. I'm UTG with T2000, blinds 400-800. Shortstack is in SB with T525.
BB is bigstack with approx T18000.

I pick up A2o and push. BB goes into the tank, flips up his 89o. (we allow teahousing heads up) I flip up my A. He thinks some more and calls, hit's an 8 on the flop and I'm done. In hindsight I think my flipping the A might have hurt. I think he pretty much figured when I only showed one card that I only had one over card.

Now, why I made that push I don't really know. All I had to do was fold and the SB was going to have to call his last 125 into the pot. I've been feeling like this was a horrible play. Everyone else said the same.

But now, I'm trying to figure out my reasoning. At that point the SB and BB have random hands. For all I know the SB will double up and then be on the button the next hand, while I'll be in the BB and facing an automatic all in raise from the bigstack. If I don't pick up a hand there, I may have to fold and now I'm posting another 400 in the small blind facing another raise from the bigstack. Of course the short stack would be in the BB with a stack of T1050 (if he doubled through the previous hand) He can't fold to the Bigstack's UTG raise, so I could fold there as well. Now I'm down to 800 and hoping the shortstack doesn't double through again.

I guess I was thinking that A high was going to be good, which it was preflop, and that the BB would perhaps fold, and that my stack wasn't really big enough to be a guarantee to fold into 2nd.

What do you guys think about the situation

[vrecksler]

With your chip count and the blind levels you were in no rush to make a move with something like A2, especially against the chip leader who has shown he is willing to gamble and play his stack aggressively.

I think you overplayed the hand and even though you saw you were up against 98o it is not a hand you want to get involved with for all your chips as you are a small favorite. Showing the A was probably a mistake like you admitted already, but pushing when a solid raise can give you the same information without the risk may have been better.

However I do not think you should have necessarily waited until heads up to gamble a little, I mean the big stack had over 75% of the chips in play so if you are playing to win you are going to have to make some moves and double up sooner or later. But I would prefer to have a stronger hand before pushing all-in and just raise the pot and take it from there.

The only way I would make a push here is if the chip leader was a stronger player that would outplay me after the flop, in which case I would be looking to get all my chips in with the best hand or in coin flip situations and take away his advantage.

[Lumpy]

Originally Posted by schmag

With your chip count and the blind levels you were in no rush to make a move with something like A2, especially against the chip leader who has shown he is willing to gamble and play his stack aggressively.

He is putting nearly half his stack in the BB next hand. If he lays it down and SB doubles up he isn't in much better shape than the other short stack. Easy push IMO, but I wouldn't show anything.

[coyote]

I agree, (in response to shmag) BUT, with the chips the way they were, it was all-in or fold for me. A solid raise was going to do nothing for me, as my stack was under 3x the big blind.

Perhaps the most relevant question is this: How do you assign odds on the SB doubling up on the BB if I fold, with 2 random hands? Because if he doesn't bust, then I'm in a very precarious position.

Is it worth folding the Ace for a 50% shot that the SB busts? This is where I'm not very good, the math needed to determine tourney equity or whatever.

I guess if I fold, 50% of the time SB busts and I win $100.
50% of the time he doubles through, and now it's 60/40 that I win 2nd.
I'm not taking in to account any odds that I end up winning, they seem pretty slight due to stack sizes.

If I raise all in, I'm 60% to double up, 40% to bust out in 3rd. If I double up I gotta figure I'm about 95% to take second.

50%*100 + 50%*(60%*100 + 40%*50) = $90 (folding)

40%*50 + 60%*(95%*100 + 5%*50) = $78.50 (raising all in)

Does this math make any sense? I pretty much made it up

[vrecksler]

OK, I missed the part where he was down to 2000 chips with the blinds at 400/800. In that case I would have moved all-in as soon as I saw the A.

I still would not have shown any cards though.

[dad604]

In that situation, allin is not a bad move with only 3 players left and having the A but I won't show the A. The less he knows the better.