 | |
View Poll Results: the question: if we played this tournament 1,000 times, what per cent of them would the tournament | |
10% win rate
|    | 1 | 6.25% | |
20% win rate
|    | 3 | 18.75% | |
60% win rate
|    | 6 | 37.50% | |
80% win rate
|    | 4 | 25.00% | |
95% or better win rate
|    | 2 | 12.50% |
 | | 
04-28-2005, 04:19 PM
|  | Poker Nerd (and Admin) | | Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: bottom pair and a flush draw Age: 35
Posts: 10,378
Chips: 15,967
| | | a tournament pro comes to your home game....what happens?
last night at the weekly tourny, the chumps were talking about how poker is all luck (in the middle of my 3rd cash in three weeks).
i presented the following scenario; the field is the same group of loose/passives and weak/tights as ever, except that tournament pro Franky McGraw is playing. he's sober, drug-free, highly motivated to win, and about 50X better than each of us (insert name of your choice in place of Franky McGraw(i'm thinking lederer, personally)).
10 players start; the starting stacks are 1,000,000,000, and the blinds are 5/10. the blinds don't go up. this is a freezeout; play will continue until one player gets all the chips, without time limits.
discuss; please post below to explain your reasoning |
04-28-2005, 04:27 PM
|  | World Series Final Table | | Join Date: Mar 2005
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Chips: 29,466
| | | Skill will win on average.
Luck will win every time.
In your proposed scenario, I'd have to bet on average. Franky wins. But I don't see why he'd waste so much time on you chumps, unless the stakes were high.
Oh, and I voted for 80%. A rough calculation:
If he's 50X better than each of you, then each of you has maybe a 2% chance to win. (This crude model says that the probability of luck tipping the balance in your favor is proportional to the skill handicap you have to overcome.) 9 x 2% is 18% for the bunch of you, leaving him as a 82% favorite.
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04-28-2005, 04:31 PM
| | Poker Nerd (and Admin) | | Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: bottom pair and a flush draw Age: 35
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| | Quote: |
Originally Posted by CaptLego In your proposed scenario, I'd have to bet on average. Franky wins. But I don't see why he'd waste so much time on you chumps, unless the stakes were high. | theory question = forget about time involved (days?) and stakes (thus assuming he's motivated to win).
you didn't vote, and i didn't really understand the first part of your answer. |
04-28-2005, 04:35 PM
| | World Series Final Table | | Join Date: Mar 2005
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| | Quote: |
Originally Posted by jojobinks Quote: |
Originally Posted by CaptLego In your proposed scenario, I'd have to bet on average. Franky wins. But I don't see why he'd waste so much time on you chumps, unless the stakes were high. | theory question = forget about time involved (days?) and stakes (thus assuming he's motivated to win).
you didn't vote, and i didn't really understand the first part of your answer. | sorry --- I was editing my post at the same time you were replying --- see my edited post.
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04-28-2005, 06:34 PM
|  | On the Bubble | | Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Mpls. MN
Posts: 181
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| | | Of course luck is a factor in a game, but real pro's can make luck. Sounds silly, but then again why is it you see the same 10 players at all these final tables? If you wanna bet on a 100% luck, waste your money on the lottery. |
04-28-2005, 11:37 PM
|  | ChipTalk.net Article Writer | | Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Amsterdam, NY Age: 33
Posts: 295
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| | | I voted 10% because pros can't play against losers. They will suck out on them everytime.
Justin |
04-29-2005, 10:04 AM
|  | Final Table | | Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: I'm not a businessman...
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| | | phil ivey= pure domination |
04-30-2005, 06:12 PM
| | Final Table | | Join Date: Apr 2005
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| | | its hard to bluff a loose amatuer player since they will call on almost any hand they hold except rags. Then its not skill its luck on what cards fall. |
05-01-2005, 10:40 AM
| | On the Bubble | | Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Mpls. MN
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| | Quote: |
Originally Posted by hayaku its hard to bluff a loose amatuer player since they will call on almost any hand they hold except rags. Then its not skill its luck on what cards fall. | I couldn't have said it any better. |
05-01-2005, 10:56 AM
| | Poker Nerd (and Admin) | | Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: bottom pair and a flush draw Age: 35
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| | Quote: |
Originally Posted by Bhudio Quote: |
Originally Posted by hayaku its hard to bluff a loose amatuer player since they will call on almost any hand they hold except rags. Then its not skill its luck on what cards fall. | I couldn't have said it any better. | here's the problem with that thought; the stacks are one billion and the blinds are 5/10.
why would a pro need to bluff? why couldn't he bet for value against these unbluffable guys and chop away until he's got all the chips.
your point is valid, but only in the type of games we typically play in. not in the one described.  |
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