a tournament pro comes to your home game....what happens?

CaptLego · #11 (**permalink**) 05-01-2005, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jojobinks

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bhudio

Quote:

Originally Posted by hayaku

its hard to bluff a loose amatuer player since they will call on almost any hand they hold except rags. Then its not skill its luck on what cards fall.

I couldn't have said it any better.

here's the problem with that thought;

the stacks are one billion and the blinds are 5/10.

why would a pro need to bluff? why couldn't he bet for value against these unbluffable guys and chop away until he's got all the chips.

your point is valid, but only in the type of games we typically play in. not in the one described.

Agreed.

So Jojo, what do you think is the right answer? It has to be at least slightly less than 100%, because there is always at least the vanishingly small possibility that a poor player could get an incredible streak of luck..
flop a royal on every hand until the pro is busted!

You said the pro is only 50x better...
Would your answer change if the pro were only 10% better than the other players?

CaptLego · #12 (**permalink**) 05-01-2005, 11:35 AM

Against this guy, the best strategy I can come up with is this:

Go ALL-IN pre-flop on every hand. This neutralizes his skill advantage.

Sooner or later, he'll have to call or he'll eventually be blinded out.

When he does call, what's the worst odds I could have? 4:1 against me?

I have at least a 20% chance to win.

If all the other chumps at the table did the same thing, then his odds would drop even more.

(BTW: shouldn't this thread be in the Poker Strategy forum?)

Murf · #13 (**permalink**) 05-01-2005, 11:50 AM

CaptLego's idea sounds pretty good, so I went with the 20% chance for me, and gave the pro an 80% chance to win. I would think that CaptLego's situation depends on the pro as well... I could see Tuan Le calling with just about anything.

jojobinks · #14 (**permalink**) 05-01-2005, 04:14 PM

i think it would be darn near 95%, assuming that the chumps played as if the game was winnable.

lego's suggestions are good...if everyone went all in every hand, then the pros chances change pretty dramatically.

my point is that there are structures in which luck has very little to do with it. in a structure way less skill-based than this one, the pro still would still have a huge edge.

as described in the OP, and assuming the fishies played their normal games, i go with the 95% number.

edit: the reason i posted in this forum is b/c the discussion was a pro against my home game. it wasn't strat of how to nullify the pros advantage...