[jdunford]

Ok, this is probably too easy (doubt it will take more than an hour), but I just feel like giving away a chip.


Prize:

One (1) ASM "Donkey KGB" chip (mint condition; fresh out of the box and still dusty); my choice of denomination (will be one of those pictured). Prizes will only be sent to an address in Canada or the continental USA (sorry).




Instructions:

Read the hand history from a live tournament ("donkament"), below, and identify and briefly explain, to my satisfaction, ALL of the "mistakes" and/or "negative expectation value" (-EV) plays that the villain makes. Please number them for convenience.

I've had lots of time to think about this hand, and I'm pretty confident that I know them all... Again, I don't expect this to take long, but if nobody gives me a satisfactory answer by Sunday, I'll drop a hint.


Necessary information:

1) Villain is a loose-passive calling station.
2) Everyone (including Hero) knows that Villain is a loose-passive calling station.
3) Hero is a tight-aggressive player (at least in NLHE tourneys).
4) Everyone (including Villain) knows that Hero is a tight-aggressive player.


Additional information:

8-players. NLHE. T50,000 starting stacks. 20-minute levels, starting at 300/500. Antes starting in round 3 (100/500/1000). One re-buy or add-on per person (another 50,000 if you bust before the break, or if you want to add-on at the break). It's the "donkament of champions", so everybody has played against each other several times before. Mixture of TAGs, LAGs, and LPs. Hero is immediately on Villain's left.


Hand History:

Exactly 1 orbit in, still round 1; no one has busted out or re-bought yet. Everyone has approximately 50,000 in chips (only small but nearly family pots have been played). Villain has approximately 46,000 having limped into every hand so far. Hero has approximately 48,000 having folded most hands so far.

Villain posts SB of 300.
Hero posts BB of 500.
UTG calls 500.
UTG+1 calls 500.
MP1 calls 500.
MP2 calls 500.
CO folds.
Button calls 500.
Villain (SB) calls 200.
Hero raises to 6,000.
UTG folds.
UTG+1 folds.
MP1 folds.
MP2 folds.
Button folds.
Villain calls 5,500.

Flop is .

Villain bets 10,000.
Hero raises to 20,000.
Villain calls (instantly).

Turn is .
Villain checks.
Hero checks.

River is .
Villain pushes all-in for ~ 20,000.
Hero folds.

Hero voluntarily shows to the table.

Villain voluntarily shows to the table.

[hardhouseinc]

Hmmmm, pretty cut and dry to me...

You didnt raise enough on the flop.. Id have set him in like 30k more or just
have instantly gone all in...

Then you didnt bet the turn to have any idea what he had.

If he called the raise on the flop, he probably has at least top pair or a set or two pair anyway... so im guessing you figured the check on the turn was a trap check...

I guess by checking the turn, you figured he had a Q and just gave up hoping
to catch a 2 outer on the river... Which is about all you can do...

The only way to win that is just go all in preflop, or on the flop an hope he folds
his lame kicker...

[PhilTheThrill14]

1. Villain called your preflop raise.

That's it.

[parrotheadMZ]

Hero played it right. Just got a bad beat.
Hero hoped villain would put all his chips in without him scaring him away with another big bet.
Bad turn card on river and now hero is a donkey
If river didnt pair the board villain would have tried to steal the pot and would have been BUSTED

Thats poker

[osumike11379]

Originally Posted by PhilTheThrill14

1. Villain called your preflop raise.

That's it.

I concur....yeah that is BAD

[WalkFar]

Okay, I will give it a go.

The Villain's plays
1. sitting down and playing without learning about what he's doing
2. calling the BB probably has -EV, but QJ is priced in
3. out-of-position call (5500) with a weak hand, to a TAG player's 12x BB raise, also early in the tourney, 'nuf said
4. On the flop betting 10,000 into a 14,500 pot. Not too bad a move here (if he wasn't loose, passive calling station). This bet should tell him if Hero is bluffing.
5. Calling raise to 20,000. Hero's raise should have told him that his top pair was not good
6. Lightning strikes, hits his trips. Now he checks? There is a somewhat dangerous board out there
7. River he is all-in when a value bet may get him something


Here are the -EV plays in order:
1. sitting down
3. the pre-flop call
5. call on the flop
7. all-in on the river
6. the check on the turn

[jdunford]

Originally Posted by WalkFar

Okay, I will give it a go.

The Villain's plays
1. sitting down and playing without learning about what he's doing
2. calling the BB probably has -EV, but QJ is priced in
3. out-of-position call (5500) with a weak hand, to a TAG player's 12x BB raise, also early in the tourney, 'nuf said
4. On the flop betting 10,000 into a 14,500 pot. Not too bad a move here (if he wasn't loose, passive calling station). This bet should tell him if Hero is bluffing.
5. Calling raise to 20,000. Hero's raise should have told him that his top pair was not good
6. Lightning strikes, hits his trips. Now he checks? There is a somewhat dangerous board out there
7. River he is all-in when a value bet may get him something


Here are the -EV plays in order:
1. sitting down
3. the pre-flop call
5. call on the flop
7. all-in on the river
6. the check on the turn

Ding ding ding!
We have a winner!

I only counted 4 (didn't consider that sitting down was -EV, but definitely could be argued that way). Most can be identified by considering Hero's range (given the pre-flop raise) and taking into account the fact that Villain is a calling station and that Hero knows this (for 2.).

1. Pre-flop call.
Have to consider, what is Hero's range with that big pre-flop raise from BB? Remember, he's pretty TAG, and isn't the kind of guy that likes to lose a good chunk of his stack early in a tournament. He could make this raise with AA, KK, QQ, AK, maybe JJ or AQ, ... that's about it. QJ is dominated by ALL of these hands. It's not a matter of being "priced in", but rather, being dominated by every possible holding. Besides, he'll be out of position for the rest of the hand (and perhaps against a superior player), so he's pretty much screwed with QJ... Easy pre-flop fold.

The only thing I think Villain did right was his bet the flop. However, I think he did the right thing for the wrong reason. It should have been a "feeler" bet: "Is top pair good?" If Hero has AK or JJ, he will likely fold (or perhaps meekly call; try to get a read on how long he takes and/or uncomfortable he looks making the call). If Hero raises, it's time to fold top-pair-bad-kicker (see below).

2. Calling the raise.
Going back to Hero's range here, what could the raise mean? Well, Hero knows that Villain is a calling station, so there is no way that Hero is bluffing (with JJ or AK) here. The raise could only mean AA, KK, QQ, or AQ. Is villain beating any of those hands? No. Does villain have odds to call at best a 5-outer? No. Besides, he could be virtually drawing dead (if Hero has QQ or AQ). Easy fold.

3. Checking the turn.
He was clearly intending to check-raise here. Definitely should have bet, instead. For one, if Hero has AQ, a bet will allow Villain to find out very quickly when Hero raises all-in (not that he'll be able to get away, but that's another story). And by betting, Villain could prevent Hero from drawing out (e.g. if Hero has AA or KK, or even bluffed with JJ, then Hero could draw a boat on the river). By checking, Hero has the opportunity to check behind with his big pocket pair, taking a free card that might give him the boat (and cost Villain all his chips on the river). And even if Hero has AQ, Villain's check gives Hero lots of options: he can bet and hope Villain pushes (which I'm sure he would have), and take all his chips that way, or he can wait by checking, and call Villain's all-in at that point.

4. All-in on the river.
Pushing on the river when Hero is already suspicious is a good way to lose your stack quickly. (a) Are there any hands worse than QJ that Hero would call with? No. (b) Are there any hands better than QJ that Hero would fold? No (except perhaps KQ, but that wasn't even a possibility given Hero's range pre-flop). Therefore, Hero is only going to call if he's winning (and Villain loses his stack) or fold if he's losing (and Villain gains 0 more chips), so it's a purely losing play. A small value bet (like 2,000-5,000) might have made Hero think that AK or KK could be possible hands for Villain (consistent with the betting and Villain's image), and Hero might call on the grounds that AA could be winning... but even that's a bit of a stretch.


WalkFar, please PM me your mailing address and I'll send out your prize as soon as I get a chance (Monday or Tuesday).

[jdunford]

Originally Posted by PhilTheThrill14

1. Villain called your preflop raise.

That's it.

Well, if you mean, "Had Villain not called the pre-flop raise, he would have avoided making any other mistakes on this hand", then I guess you're right... but I meant to consider each play separately based on what happened up to that point (i.e., 1. Villain calling pre-flop was a mistake... Then, having made the call, then 2. calling the post-flop raise was a second mistake... etc.).

[PhilTheThrill14]

When he called your raise to 20000 he was calling 10000 more into a 54500 pot. I've seen worse.

[jdunford]

Originally Posted by PhilTheThrill14

When he called your raise to 20000 he was calling 10000 more into a 54500 pot. I've seen worse.

I would have raised more, but I wanted to see if he'd re-raise all-in (just 'cause he's a donk doesn't mean he couldn't be beating me with QQ or 99 or 22). His call told me that he definitely has a Q, probably with a bad kicker. Besides, that puts half his stack in the pot, so he'll be pretty much committed when I push on the turn (assuming it's not another Q, of course).

In hindsight, he agreed (and I know he's not lying) that if I'd raised all-in on the flop, he would have called anyway, and I would have lost my entire stack. So really, I did the best I could, and lost the fewest chips given the scenario.

WalkFar, we had a blizzard today. I'll get your chip out tomorrow.