[jojobinks]

3 handed. stacks relatively even. blinds 300/600 with a 50 ante. i have 6000 of 30k in play.

okay, stacks not relatively even. but i have enough to hurt the other guys badly.

sb is a strong, aggressive player who's just a tad too loose, IMO. he likes to reraise allin and make plays on the blinds. he has ~11k in chips.

i'm BB for 600

button folds, sb raises to 1900. i have .

obviously, my options are:

1. fold
2. push
3. call (but i'll never do that b/c it sucks here)

if we run all 5, here's what i think i can expect:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 56.1683 % 54.28% 01.89% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 43.8317 % 41.94% 01.89% { KJo }

i don't want to run a race as an underdog, b/c i think i'm a strong player. so i need to get this guy to fold part of the time...hopefully something like 25% of the time.

here's the question, ready? which hands in that range (hand 1 range above) can i reasonably expect him to lay down? can i hit my 25% fold target?

discuss.

if you saw the hand or heard us discuss it, forget about what happened. my only question is "can i get him to fold enough to make this profitable?"

[w16227]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

3 handed. stacks relatively even. blinds 300/600 with a 50 ante. i have 6000 of 30k in play.

okay, stacks not relatively even. but i have enough to hurt the other guys badly.

sb is a strong, aggressive player who's just a tad too loose, IMO. he likes to reraise allin and make plays on the blinds. he has ~11k in chips.

i'm BB for 600

button folds, sb raises to 1900. i have .

obviously, my options are:

1. fold
2. push
3. call (but i'll never do that b/c it sucks here)

if we run all 5, here's what i think i can expect:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 56.1683 % 54.28% 01.89% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 43.8317 % 41.94% 01.89% { KJo }

It was not me - but lets assume that I am the aggressive player. Depending upon the person in the blinds - I would probably make the initial raise with just about any 2 cards (if the player has shown that they will avoid confrontaions without a big hand). The stack sizes are just off enough that I will not try and pot commit myself with the initial raise (If the BB had like 4K in chips, my raise would be to like 2500).

Ok - I make the raise into jojo, and he pushes. What do I throw away?
1. any junk hand (assume that ~ 10% of the time I would make the raise with pure junk)
2. TJ, QT, pretty much all broadway combos except KQos and up (even those may take a long hard look at)
3. poor aces (like a8os down and a7s down)
4. Small pockets like 44 and under

Some of these decisions are based on my playing jojo a lot - he would rarely make the allin move here unless he had something. Maybe not a lot - but enough.

Part of the difficulty of this question - is that jojo is in the "red zone" shorthanded. KJ=push in this situation (as well as pretty much any other reasonable holding). 5000 would be red zone time for a full table, shorthanded (3) brings that up to like 15,000+. The problem is that the other player probably knows this as well so the raise could mean just about anything from 72 to AA.


Even though it is tough to make the move - I would say that the allin with KJ is the correct tournament strategy. Your stack is just not deep enough to fold here. Without even blinking, I know that I get rid of 10% of the hands that I raise with here, and a series of others that give you the 25% with ease.

[gwilkx]

i saw this hand, but will not discuss it as such.

the real problem that i see is that SB is getting pretty good odds to call here.

after jojo's push, there is just over $8k in the pot (150 in antes, 1,900 from SB, and 6,000 from jojo). it costs SB about $4,100 to call, so he's looking at around 2:1.

SB probably knows that jojo can play, and is capable of making that move with a wide range of hands (Ax+, maybe 55+, any two broadway perhaps).

if SB calls and loses, he basically switches chip positions w/ jojo (becoming the short stack by about $5k chips).

getting 2:1 in a heads up pot, i think it's tough for an aggressive player to get away from any reasonable raising hand in this situation, so i don't see a lot of fold equity with this play, unless SB is holding something truly weak.

of course, what do i know - i dumped off my chips to jojo with a lousy pair of hockey sticks. . .

gw-

[CaptLego]

given that you've got position on the guy, I'd like to see the analysis for the case where you call... I think you've got a better chance of taking the pot away from him after the flop than you do pre-flop....

Also, if you're trying to get him to fold pre-flop (to an all-in, I guess, since you're looking at running all 5), than your calculation also has to consider that he'd be folding the weakest 25% of his possible hands, which makes you less likely to win when he doesn't fold (and consequently more likely to bust you).

[vrecksler]

I agree with what gwil said in that given the odds and the stack size of the SB you could be up against a call the majority of the time, especially if the SB is loose and aggressive. Assuming the SB would make a move with weaker hands, he would have to have a pretty weak holding to have less than the pot was offering.

However, I also agree with W has said about you being able to maybe hit that 25% fold mark depending on your previous history as well. If this play has worked before, if coming over top of the SB has resulted in folds in the past then it would add more support for such a move.

Given your stack and blinds, I think it is a good move because even if you get called KJ is a fairly strong hand 3 handed. If I was in your position, I would have pushed all-in and hope for a fold, or to catch the SB on a steal with something like KT or QJ.

[Couga]

Originally Posted by gwilkx

getting 2:1 in a heads up pot, i think it's tough for an aggressive player to get away from any reasonable raising hand in this situation, so i don't see a lot of fold equity with this play, unless SB is holding something truly weak.

gw-

Agreed. Those are pretty attractive odds with any raising hand. At that point in a tournament with the blinds and stacks where they are, it seems like SB has very few hands that he should lay down unless he is sure you dominate him or have an overpair to his cards. Even with absolute garbage the odds are not that far off to call (again providing SB is not dominated and BB has no overpair to SB's hole cards).

Still all things considered, the push is not a bad play, but I think you do it expecting to be called and hoping you have the best hand.

Take Care,
Couga

[SpeakEasy]

I don't think you can hit your 25% target. I would fold and use those chips to steal against a stack smaller or about the same size as me.

Instead of "defending your Big Blind," consider an alternative strategy: pick up the blinds at least once per orbit. Remove your focus from your blind, and focus on the table as a whole.

Not attempting to hijack, just considering the "defend the BB" mindset from which you ask your question.