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Originally Posted by broncoboss  I understand your thinking. But if another small card hits, I am going to lead out again. If a bigger card hits, I then have to decide what my opponent has. If I check or bet weak, I'm probably going to get rolled by the big stack. If he has something like A-K, he is probably going to fold to a medium sized bet. If he just calls, I am probably going to get the rest of my stack in on the next street anyway.
The way I see it, with this board I am pretty much going to commit my stack anyway. Why not do it right here. Yes, it would be nice to just bet say, 1/2 the pot for 1400. But then I am giving odds to anyone who wants to draw on me. Again if he just called from there, I am going to have to come back with another 1500-2000 bet on the turn if another small card comes.
I know you are trying to keep everybody in that you have beat, but I am guessing that the folks I have beat are guys with A-K, A-Q type hands. I would rather take the pot which makes me chip leader than allow A-K to get home on me.
I just don't see a whole lot of value in value betting here. |
I'm not willing to get in a lengthy discussion here, but think of it in terms of expectation value. By over-betting all-in, you get called when you're beat, and you take down the pot when you're ahead. If you bet, say, just over half the pot (1500), then you take down the pot when your opponent has nothing, but you might get a call if he has TPTK or some weaker pair (so you can get more profit out of the hand), and if you're raised, you're probably beat (either by a bigger pair or a set or two-pair).
Sure, if you bet, and your opponent calls you down with his set, you'll lose your stack anyway. But it doesn't have to be a "win a small pot or go broke" situation. Also consider if your opponent just calls a "continuation-sized" bet and an A comes on the turn. You check, he bets (hoping you have an A), and you fold. In that situation, at least you live to fight another day.
