Quote:
Originally Posted by dad604  He was a fish in two ways. He should have cr the turn and he should not have shove all-in on the river. Only a hand that could beat him would call the all-in. The flop check was ok, I would have done the same. I was a fish for betting the turn but lucky he decline to make me lay it down. |
I agree about the all-in. But why check-raise?
You have the nuts and only a few cards can beat you. You are 90% to win the hand with one card to come. If you check-raise what is the chance the opponent will fold? In this case I wouldn't check-raise at all. You have someone betting into you on every street. Why would you check-raise and possibly frighten the person off? If you think you need to win the hand right there then put in a big check-raise. The other reason for check-raising would be to put more money in the pot. But in this case the bettor is betting every street and increasing the bet. He's doing the work for you. If you want money in the pot it's already there.
I guess we differ on the fact that you think he should have pushed and won the pot before seeing the river card. But in the long run you want to see the river because you will make more money. The guy holding the Aces got sucked out on. It happens. But over the long run he is going to make money on this hand. Consider what happens if the bettor didn't have the gutshot.
Who else would be making raises along the way? A bluffer? Yeah, possibly. Any check-raise would immediately make him go away. What about two pair? A check-raise would make them consider you have a set. They might fold too. What about another set of trips? Check-raising them might not have an effect but it could slow the raising/betting down. In most of the hands against the Aces a check-raise is going to push people out of the pot. You don't want that. If someone is willing dumping money into the pot when you are 90% to win the last thing you want to do is run them out of the pot. They are paying you off. Sure they may suck out on you over time but the odds say you are going to win more often than not and you don't want to be short-sighted by pushing someone out on the turn. If someone bets pre-flop, flop, and turn you have a reasonable expectation they are going to put money in on the river and you don't want to miss that.
