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Old 10-09-2007, 10:29 PM
reotexas reotexas is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
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Re: Another How Not to Play AA's

Well I guess I am a fish. I don't think it was played that bad. Look at it from the villian's perspective:

You got AA and someone raised pre-flop. You got the best hand, you could raise or call (maybe a small mistake not to re-raise, but if you are going to mix up your play it's okay).

Flop: You have the nuts. Check to the bettor hoping he bets into you. Since the bettor was the button he could have any range of hands or just be bluffing. The opposing player bets into you while you have the nuts. So you call (let him do the raising for you). If you re-raise you could win the pot right there but you might get more money by letting him bet into you. But what is the risk? There are only a few cards which could beat you. Most likely you would put the bettor on two pair, Ace / rag or maybe trips. So unless the bettor catches the case trip card you are probably still going to win.

Turn: You check to the bettor because you still hold the nuts. Bettor bets into you. Do you put the bettor on an inside straight draw? You hope so because over the long haul the bettor will miss the straight draw a lot more times than the bettor will make it.

I would just let the bettor keep betting into my nuts.

River: Well, one of the only cards which can screw you hits. But I still do not put the bettor on an inside straight draw because they probably wouldn't continue bluffing a long-shot so long knowing they are being called every bet.

However, I would not push-all in on the river. A small blocking bet probably would be better just in case the bettor is chasing down to the river with that inside straight draw.

I look at this way--if I have the nuts and someone keeps betting into me so I can disguise my hand I will let them. With these cards very few cards will beat you and if you look at how much you win when the inside straight draw doesn't hit versus how much money you will make when it doesn't you will be money ahead playing this way. But, this assumes you don't push all-in on the river.

Here is how this would play out over time playing from the turn on:

Hitting the inside straight will happen only 9% of the time. That means for every 11 times you play this hand you will see the straight hit 1 time out of 11. So, there is $109 in the pot on the turn. If there are no further bets on the river then I am going to lose $109 every 11 times this hand is played. But I will win $1,109 during the same 11 times because 10 times out of 11 you aren't going to hit your miracle card.

So the question is would you be willing to play the Aces this way knowing 10 times out of 11 you are going to win 10x the amount you could lose?

Last edited by reotexas : 10-09-2007 at 11:12 PM.
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