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  #10 (permalink)     Top 
Old 09-19-2007, 03:59 PM
Clipper Clipper is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
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Re: Hand Advice 2 and 3: Borgata $2/$5 NL

I am fine with him raising all-in with the str8 flush draw. In the example I gave, I was checkraised by a blind, so he was not going anywhere. I was better off calling with decent implied odds to catch. If he had led out with a bet, I may very well have pushed. I know that if there is money in the pot and you are a slight favorite that pushing is ok.

The downside with this approach though is that you may not actually be a favorite. What if you opponent has a set? The danger increases the more players are involved in the hand. Then he has lot's of outs to fill on turn or river. What if your opponent is pushing a larger flush draw with a pair. If these conditions exist, you are getting your money in without being a favorite (then youre not 50% to win because many outs are counterfeited). And if you have many chips, you are courting a huge variance in results.

I have pushed many times with big draws. It is not all a bed of roses. The real value of pushing draws can be had if you also push with very strong made hands as well. Then you may (if opponents are observant - lol) have tremendous fold-equity. But do you want to risk chasing out a donk by pushing with top set or something. I don't. So my pushes with big draws is then exposed (because I would only do it with the big draw). Against the typical lower limit opponents (say $1-2 online, or $3-5 live), the fold equity, in my opinion is often not there. Many are incapable of laying down top pair or an overpair. Again, swimming upstream. If you are getting approx. 2-1 or better, and have a conceiled draw (a gapper connnector), then I favor calling if it closes action.

Also, another rarely discussed topic is that, by pushing, you have folded an opponent who may have lost all of his chips if you connect with the draw and extract more on turn and river. I know, this is a deep thought, but there are times when it is true, especially if the pot you pushed him/her out of was relatively small vs. the size of the stacks. Now if there is substantial money in pot, I am pushing in a heartbeat. But often it just depends. The insta-push with a big draw is simply bad poker.
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