Two Pair on the River: Should I go ALL IN!?!?!?!?

[yeltzen]

The villain is kinda fishy (31/3.5/.6). This is 6-max, so the VPIP isn't that out of line.


FullTiltPoker Game #2033266244: Table Shaner (6 max) - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:57:03 ET - 2007/03/20

Seat 1: nomoneypoker ($22.05)
Seat 2: baspronick ($31.85)
Seat 3: yeltzen ($50.50)
Seat 4: Owen Meany ($41.80)
Seat 5: DarkL_kJoy ($26.35)
Seat 6: kellox ($54.05)

DarkL_kJoy posts the small blind of $0.10
kellox posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #4

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to yeltzen [ ]
nomoneypoker folds
baspronick calls $0.25
yeltzen calls $0.25
Owen Meany calls $0.25
DarkL_kJoy calls $0.15
kellox checks

*** FLOP *** [ ]
DarkL_kJoy checks
kellox checks
baspronick checks
yeltzen bets $1.25
Owen Meany calls $1.25
DarkL_kJoy folds
kellox folds
baspronick folds

*** TURN *** [ ] []
yeltzen bets $3.50
Owen Meany calls $3.50

*** RIVER *** [ ] []
yeltzen ???

[TheMightyJim2k]

I'm assuming the all-in comment is a joke. I do think that you should probably bet almost the full pot on the river. The only hands that I would really be worried about are KT and K9. I just don't see the villain calling on every street with J8 or QJ.

If this guy is a chaser and a bluffer then you should probably check to him and give him so rope so he might bluff with a draw. But with the aggression factor that you gave I think its much more likely he's going to call our bet with a pair of K's on the end than try to bluff us on the river with a bricked out draw.

summary: I bet about $7-9 and expect to see a lone K here often enough. Occasionally villain will show K9 or KT and I'll be pissed. If I get raised for the rest of the stack play becomes entirely read dependent, but with a middle two I would probably lay it down.

[tomb1]

Bet out. How much to bet depends on prior action, maybe $5? More if he's a donk and will pay you off.

[Irish Se7en]

Me I probably do something foolish and push but I don't like that ten on the river. It seems like this is a friendly game as there are five people in the hand in the beginning. The way he kept calling your bet, if he had the King would he have reraised you if he had K/10? Could he put you on K/J? Could he have the a hand like 9/10? Would he play J/8 if it was suited? The Ten on the river would slow me down and I would still bet but it would be half the pot. If he bumped it up then I have a dilema.

This hand reminds me of blind vs. blind play.

[JoseRijo]

Isn't this one of those, "better hands will call a push, worse hands will fold" deals?

How about taking him to valuetown for $8 or so?

[Poboy]

Originally Posted by TheMightyJim2k

I'm assuming the all-in comment is a joke. I do think that you should probably bet almost the full pot on the river. The only hands that I would really be worried about are KT and K9. I just don't see the villain calling on every street with J8 or QJ.

If this guy is a chaser and a bluffer then you should probably check to him and give him so rope so he might bluff with a draw. But with the aggression factor that you gave I think its much more likely he's going to call our bet with a pair of K's on the end than try to bluff us on the river with a bricked out draw.

summary: I bet about $7-9 and expect to see a lone K here often enough. Occasionally villain will show K9 or KT and I'll be pissed. If I get raised for the rest of the stack play becomes entirely read dependent, but with a middle two I would probably lay it down.

What he said, although I think you'll be folding your opponent's flush draw more than it's a K.
31 is semi loose for 6max.

[FL70]

I'd bet he's drawing. Bet ½ the pot.