End Game hand: have to call, or not so much?

[jojobinks]

another hand from uw85's last weekend. 4 handed play with 2 million in chips total. vrecksler utg (650k)
me button (800k)
sb (200k): weak player, will play very straightforward, overly tight preflop. has been robbed blind shorthanded
bb (350k): tricky player, good but has been risk-averse shorthanded. hasn't played back at blind steals much.

blinds are 25/50k, and a 5k ante. starting pot 95k.

since getting shorthanded, vreck and i have been gradually building our stacks by stealing blinds relentlessly. 4th gets no money, 3rd pays only the buyin (an amount insignificant, as far as i'm concerned).

vreck folds and i raise it up to 175k (which has been standard) with A6.
sb folds.
bb hems and haws for a bit, then goes allin for his 350k.

the pot is 95k, plus my 175k plus bb's remaining chips (295k) = 565k, and 175 for me to call. i'm CERTAIN i'm dominated by a PP or a better ace, but i'm getting 3.2:1

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.392% 24.53% 02.86% 514114632 59982696.00 { A6o }
Hand 1: 72.608% 69.75% 02.86% 1461780072 59982696.00 { 88+, A8s+, A9o+ }

pot odds dictate a call, but there's also this...

• if i fold, i'll have 625k remaining (better than average)
• if i call and win, i'll have about 1.2 million of 2 in play.
• if i call and lose, i'll have 450k, which is nearly average but small given the blinds/antes (and will often mean a 3rd or 4th place finish, given my playing style).

final consideration: i freely admit that i have an extremely large head, but i think i'm the strongest player left by a good margin.

what do you do?

[Diablo_Rojos]

I've noticed a couple of things. When a player "Hem's and haws" over a standard raise. 1 He was considering raising before you did. 2. He probably has a pair(as you suggested) but it's not that strong. So if this is an accurate assesment and you believe that you can out play the rest of the players at the table. You may be able to survive and perhaps wait for a better spot. One thing is that he hasn't played back at you for blind stealing. Why would he be playing back at you now? He has a strong hand but not that strong, hence the all in raise. He wants you out of the pot.
I'm going to throw out a guess that had TT.
I would fold A6 and not feel to good about it

[Poboy]

Hmm, tough one. I say call. If you lose, steal it back. I don't know anything about vrecksler's game, but I'd think out chipping him 2-1 is pretty good. You'll be able to take away some of his steals with that kind of lead.

[Fins]

Fold +1

[SpaceMonkey]

I'm a big fan of odds, but I fold here.

[julian]

i call this like 80% of the time

[shadesofgrey]

I think you are better off stealing for a little while longer with those blinds at what they are. 100k per pot is not a bad steal at all....

That said, those pot odds put that hand playable, but... why put it at risk... steal until someone calls the cops.

[BrettButter]

I call. If third is worthless to you, the only way to put yourself in position for 1st or 2nd is by winning this pot.

Even if you lose it, you're not the shortstack, so there's a good chance you'll come out with at least third anyway. Folding doesn't get you any closer to the win, it just spreads out your chips.

I don't put him on a pair, unless it's a very small one (in which you're not in bad shape..)

My guess would be KQ, or pocket 5s, but what do I know.

[TheMightyJim2k]

the problem is that the size of the blinds actually negate your skill advantage, so no matter how good you think you are (and I have a lot of respect for your game jojo) you can't let to many +EV situations go at this stage. You just can't guarantee that an extra 175k in chips is going to significantly allow you to exert your increased skill over the competition, especially for such a small sample size like the last couple of dozen hands of a tourney.

Plus even a tight range for villain is still +EV (AA-99, AK-AT). If this guy would ever make this play with KQs, 22-55 or something like JTs it makes it an even easier call.

I call this because I don't think I am a skilled enough tourney player to be laying down an A getting 3.2-1 preflop against an all-in when we are 4-handed with large blinds. Granted I'm a limidonk, so that definitely distorts my view, but I think its a call.

[Irish Se7en]

I believe you called because of the odds and lost. He pushed with K/J suited. I'm sure I'm probably wrong with what he had but I believe you called regardless.