tree to get a straight flush.
start with 5 of suit, need 3,4,6 or 7 to be able to make straight flush, and then you need 4,6 or 7, see tree below.
Code:
4
/
/3 /6
//4\7
5/\ /4
\ \6\7
\7
\
6 1/51 * 1/50 + 1/51 * 2/50 + 1/51 * 2/50 + 1/51 * 1/50 = 0.2353%
to get 3 of a kind
start with a card: 3/51 * 2/50 = 0.2353%
So its essentially the same.
although 3 of a kind is actually easier because if you start with A,2 or K you have less outs for the straight flush.
makes sense?
maybe i'm wrong?