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Originally Posted by SeattleSooner Okay, help me out here. Did I do something completely stupid or what?
Full ten handed NL Hold'em cash game. Blinds $.01/$.02. (Yes I'm a high roller) I'm on the button. UTG and I both have stacks of about $10. Everyone else is between $.50 and $3. I don't have a read on anyone, but the game is very loose and passive. I'm dealt 7c-6c.
UTG raises to $.08. 2 people call. I call. Small blind and big blind both call. 6 people see the flop. $.24 in the pot. I know my call was questionable, but I was pretty sure the two blinds would call giving me great odds to see a flop.
Flop comes 8c-9c-10s. Both blinds check. UTG check. There is a bet of $.10 and a fold. I make it $.35. Both blinds fold. UTG bets all-in and another fold to me. Do you call or fold here? |
"I know my call was questionable"
Not true. You have an absolutely perfect hand for a button call - suited connectors with at least 6 people seeing the flop. This is an idea situation for your hand.
"UTG bets all-in and another fold to me. Do you call or fold here?"
OK, here's one analysis of the situation: The most logical reason for an all-in check raise is that UTG has the current best hand and doesn't want to see a flush come on the turn or river. In other words, UTG has QJ with no clubs. By my calculation, there is about $11 in the pot after the all-in check raise. You have to bet about $9.50 to call, so you're getting about 1.15:1 odds (not very good odds, really). You're about 1.8:1 to catch a flush on the next two cards, which is the only way you'll win if UTG has QJ. Since the pot odds are less than the odds you need, you fold.
Note that if (for example) you give UTG a 25% chance to have an overpair, and only a 75% chance to have QJ, then you should call or even raise. If UTG has an overpair, you're a 95% probability to win so in this case your EV is = .25 * .95 + .75 * .35 = 50%, and thus you need only 1:1 pot odds to call and you're getting 1.15:1.
But the key item here is your read of UTG's hand. If you're more than 80% certain that UTG has QJ, you should fold.
