Sit 'n' Go's and LUCK

[Colquhoun]

I play 2 or 3 sit 'n' go tournaments every night, usually limit, because I find them to be profittable. I have done pretty well, but lately I have been noticing something....that whenever I win one, there has always been 1 or 2 pivotol hands where I have gotten VERY lucky and taken down a big pot to help put me ahead. Case in point, with 5 players last night I had A 10os and raised preflop. all fold to the BB who calls. I hit my ace on the flop and bet, get raised, and call all-in (blinds were high). Turns out, BB hit his set of 8s on the flop, but on turn and river I went runner runner hearts to complete the flush and double up.
I went on to win the tourney.
Also, I realize limit encourages chasing, and drawing hands gain in value because it is cheaper to see more cards. But I seem to feel that the only way to win one is to get 1 or 2 very lucky hands.
I try to play tight aggressive, but the times I do not finish in the money, the cards have been pretty dry. I will loosen up a bit with position, and virtually never cold call without the top 5 premiums.
I heard Chris Ferguson once say that in any given hand, it is about 95% luck and 5% skill, but over the course of a year, it is about 5% luck and 95% skill. That said, if a Sit 'n' go is about 80% luck, it comes down to what everyone does with their 20%. Am I right in this thinking?

[hachkc]

Agreed. Poker is definitely a game of luck on any given hand or hands but the skill aspect is what tips the scales from being a total crapshoot to a profitable game.

Being able to calculate the odds in a hand (pot odds, # of outs, etc) versus playing your "gut feeling", knowing how to play in tournies, reading or paying attention to your opponents are all things that the good player does to give them an edge over the competition. This doesn't mean they'll win any given tournament but over the long run those slight edges begin to add up.

[SpeakEasy]

I've come to the following conclusions about SNGs:

1. "Luck" plays a significant part. But, its not a simple as "you have to get lucky to win." I think there are two aspects to the "luck" factor to make it to the money in any given SNG: you either (a) have to "get lucky" on one or two hands in big pots, or (B) have to play skillful, mistake-free poker and "not get unlucky" by having someone draw out when you are a substantial favorite in a big pot. There is a big difference between a belief that you need to get lucky to win, and a strategy of playing skillful poker to avoid a reliance on luck to win. My experience is that players with the latter mindset are the better, money-making SNG players.

2. You can minimize the need to "get lucky" by minimizing your errors and playing mistake-free poker. Of course, easier said than done. The errors are such things as overplaying your hands pre-flop, not playing position, bluffing at the wrong time, misreading opponents' hands, relying too much on pre-flop raises and too little on post-flop play, etc. These are all of the skill elements that take a lot of practice to master.

3. I think its nearly impossible to quantify the overall "luck factor" in a SNG (i.e. "winning a SNG is 40% luck"), because it varies greatly based on the skill of the player. Notice that I'm repeatedly emphasizing skill. There is something of a formula to SNGs that, while not guaranteeing a certain result in any single SNG (due to the luck factor), over time minimize the effects of needing to "get lucky" and avoid "getting unlucky" and maximize your opportunity to let skill win out over luck in the long run. That formula is very generally: tight early, loosen up as players drop out, become highly aggressive on the bubble when others are tightest, then play a skillful short-handed game when you're in the money to maximize your finishing money spot.

You can minimize the luck-factor by playing skillful poker, but the effects only show in the long run.

[Pavel6969]

To win any tornament, you have to get lucky at least once in my opinion. Yes good play will minimize the number of times you need to get lucky, but to win a tornament you will need to catch that river card at least once at some point to win.

[Midnight sun]

Well, i disagree. Sure, there are a luckfactor involved, but i don't belive that luck plays a key role when it comes to making money in a sng. Over the long run, luck levels ut to play a minimal part of the game. That's my opinion.

Now, i play at the peanutlevels. Mainly 10$ sng´s. But i'm making good money there. I'm up about 1k so far this month, alomst soley from those games. And reading my stats from when i last reset them, from the last 168 games, i've ended up in the money 80 times. Of those 80 times, i've got 19 third places, 25 second places and 36 first places. Totaling a plusresult of 1101$. I'm not trying to come of as someone bragging like hell, but i don't belive that's all luck. What i've found works for me is playing a tight and very agressive game in the first stages. Outplaying with position against players i judge will fold a hand on ocassion, and most importantly, really shifting gears when we're down to 4 players. It's amazing how much chips u can get at that stage of an sng.

Best advice i've ever read on a forum concerning low-limit sng's are that you shouldn't steal much blinds from the button. Everybody watches the tv-shows, and they get told how important the button is all the time, so they will keep you "honest" a lot... Do it from cut-off instead. Great advice.

My advice would be, as already stated above, to really shift gears when down to four. Most of the time that will put you in a good position when deciding how the money should be distrubuted.

And i'm not complaining about bad luck all those times i don't make money. Lots of time, it's probobly my own fault or having a move caught by a monster.

[Midnight sun]

Originally Posted by SpeakEasy

That formula is very generally: tight early, loosen up as players drop out, become highly aggressive on the bubble when others are tightest, then play a skillful short-handed game when you're in the money to maximize your finishing money spot.

Exactly. As always, you rule Speakeasy.

[Ramstone]

You say you play limit Sngs. The only limit one tables I've played were either on accident or part of a rotation.

Anyway:

I think there's simply a tipping point in the tournament where the blinds/stack ratio makes the outcome pivot on 1-2 hands. Let's say you're playing FTP. 1500*9 = 13500 chips. I'm guessing at 120/240 hands become a make or break deal.

[Poboy]

I think for most tournaments there is plenty of luck needed. Whether it's good cards, no suckouts, etc.. You have to win some coin flips to win most tournaments, which is mostly decided by luck. The skill difference IMHO comes partly in how you play the hands that don't make it to the turn, or river. Those are the cases where either you put pressure on someone in the right situations, or fold at either the right or wrong time. The awkwardness of that sentence shows it's all about skill at those pts.
Anybody who watched me play the CT tournament would know that I survived a couple of times with a suckout (like QQ flopping a set v. AA), only to end up back down again, and eventually luck caught up with me and I got sucked out on. So you need the skill (that I lack) to stay up when you do win your lucky plays.
The other part is consistency, like Midnight Sun mentioned. You have to get lucky in any one tournament, but if you keep outplaying opponents and keep putting yourself in good situations, you'll win more than your fair share in the long run.

[DoubleDeuce]

I play a lot of low level NLHE SnGs. You can always look back and pinpoint crucial hands after the game. To win it all you have to showdown at some point. Whether or not the hand holds may fit your description of luck but really as long as you are playing solid cards then you stack the "luck" in your favor. Sometimes its as small as a 5-3 favorite, sometimes as much as a 4.5-1 favorite. Whatever the situation is you try to get your chips in when the odds favor you.

Now I will say there is a bit of luck when big hands clash. Say my pocket pair hits a set on the flop and my opponent makes top pair with the nut flush draw. Money trickles in until the river which makes his flush but also makes a boat or quads for me. Those hands are where I am "lucky" to cash in a load of chips when I made a monster hand. There have been times when I hit a monster hand but couldn't make any cash off of it. Conversely its important to not be on the other side of a monster hand, say getting pocket kings the same time someone has pocket aces.

What it boils down to is that if you play enough solid poker you accumulate enough chips to survive bad beats and if the beats are your favor then you will finish in the cash.