Quote:
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Originally Posted by SteveA Early in a 9 player live tourney with 10/20 blinds.
This is the first hand I played and I've folded on the button twice.
I'm in late position to the right of the button.
-Action folds to me
-I raise 3x bb with Ks8s (hoping to steal)
-Button calls
-small blind calls - pot is 200
-flop: 448 with two diamonds
- small blind checks
- I announce a raise of 150 but actually throw 200 into the pot. I acknowledge my mistake but leave all the money - pot is 400.
-button folds.
-small blind re-raises 200 - pot is 600.
Now what??? |
i'm assuming here that you started with 1000 chips and started this hand with all of them.
you've bet 260 on the hand. 60 PF and 200 on the flop. you have 740 chips left.
what sb might have (assuming competent play):
a random 4
against trips, you're 8% to win, and he won't fold.
a flush draw with overcards
against QJ diamonds, you're just about even money.
an overpair.
against a random overpair, you're 16% to win.
if we assume he'd have reraised AA-QQ, then you gain almost no ground with your K overcard against this new range.
a made boat
not very likely. but if he's got it, you're about 2% to win.
so, you're likely to be a big dog, and no better than a coinflip barring some incredible read.
in addition, the min-raise is a trap move. unless i know more about this guy, i'm assuming i'm beat and bowing out semi-gracefully. then, i'd try my best to wheedle him into showing his cards.
