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Originally Posted by scottwire The fact that cards are out means nothing unless you know for sure that someone has those spades.
There are 46 unknown cards. What difference does it make whether the cards are in people's hands or in the deck.
Either way they are randomly distributed and 9 of those 46 are a spade. |
Bingo.
Another way to look at probability. Shuffle a 52 card deck - what's the probability the top card is the A
? 1 out of 52 possibilities. Now shuffle the deck, burn the top card - what's the probability the next card is the A
? 1 out of 52.
In order for the 2nd card to be the A
the 1st card can't be it, so there are 51 /52 it isn't the A
. There are 51 cards left now so the probability the 2nd card is the A
is 1 / 51 - multiply the 2 events together and the probability the A
is the 2nd card is 1 /52.
Odds are always calculated using the number of cards known and unknown regardess of whether they are in play or not.
