| bet the turn
your 5k bet on the flop almost commited you to the pot (9k of your 21k is in the pot already). i would have a hard time putting him on a flush draw since he thought about the call on the flop for a few seconds. from the way you describe the guy, he wasn't calculating whether he had the required 4:1 to call your bet - most weak players just call with a flush draw automatically, regardless of how much is in the pot or how many players remain.
if he doesn't have the flush draw, the Kd on the turn is just as scary to him as it is to you - I bet the turn here. How much depends on what I think of him (is he aggressive with the chip lead or does he protect it, etc). is he playing for first place, or just to make it in the money. in a small game like this, i play for first, so I bet the king on the turn and hope he goes away.
the way you played it was fine as well and may very well have been the best move since you know the guy. the river card is scary since he could've called your 5k on the flop with middle pair (thus justifying his pause before the call). and now he has trips. however, i think you absolutely have to call the bet on the river. AT or better is unlikely as is any PP for the reasons you outline (though I'm surprised that he wasn't the one to raise pre-flop). the pot has 23k in it and you're getting 4.6:1 to see it. the bet itself is suspicious - if he wants you to go away he needs to bet more like 9-10k (half the pot). nonetheless, you had the read on the guy and in your shoes i'd have been happy to call his 5k. the read is everything. as you said: call and lose and you're hurtin', call and win and you're in great shape. if you're playing for 1st it's an easy call. if you want to just squeak into the money then maybe keep your 12.5k and wait for a better situation. just an opinion.
nice hand.
gw-  | 
