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Thread
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What would you do?
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08-17-2005, 02:47 PM
TheMightyJim2k
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Join Date: Jul 2005
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if you take out the possibility of a spade flush then you still only have 12 outs, as you cant count the 10 c as both a flush and a straight out.
and because you have to worry about a possible spade flush you should probably only count the 10s as half an out.
so you really had 11.5 outs. With 1 card to come you have 11.5 out of 47 which is less than 25% chance to win the hand. The pot was 1560 and his bet was 240 so you definitely had odds to call. But a reraise was not necessary, especially not all in.
you had only bet 500 of your 1660, and a call would have still given you more than enough chips with blinds of 15 and 30. A call gives you good odds, but for an all-in bet to be profitable
if you have about a 22% chance of winning if he calls you will be investing 1160 (your remaining stack) to win 2720. This is not a profitable play (about -305 expectation). in order for this to be profitable he must fold at least 60% of the time to your all in bet (positive expectation of 312) for this to be a profitable play in the long run. It is very unlikely that with top pair (as you put him on) , as the bigger stack, getting 2.5 to 1 odds that he is going to fold this hand 60% of the time.
A call is a profitable play, but a reraise would only be profitable if you had reraised to 500 or so assuming he would fold about 30-40% of the time.
all in reraise was not a profitable play.
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