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Originally Posted by gmunny I didn't go through all your numbers, but shouldn't you take into account the payouts for first and second place and work them into your calculations as to which is better from an EV standpoint? Regardless, I would be inclined to agree with your line of thinking. If the chip count is close and the blinds are relatively small, why take coinflips that can damage your stack when you think you can outplay your opponent? If the blinds are large, though, you may as well call. I remember a thread on 2+2 from one of the online sng pros, gigabet, and he said he would fold even if pot odds were in his favor if he knew he can out play his opponents and he wanted to be the one betting and raising, not calling. Of course if you have a big chip lead, it would be worth it to call to bust the player as you can afford to gamble a little.
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I think you've summed it up pretty well.
As for EV, as long as 1st place pays more than 2nd place, then anything that increases your chances of winning is +EV. I don't think the ratio of 1st to 2nd $ would change the decision point (but I haven't really thought about it much.)
As for the blinds -- I did think about that a bit. In my calculation, there's an evaluation of the relative strength of the players. The number I use is the ratio of chipstacks that makes you 50% to win. The correct number to use would be a function of the skill level of the players and the size of the blinds. For example, if the blinds are bigger than the stacks this number should be 1:1 no matter what the skill level of the players.
The easiest example I came up with to understand my analysis is the case of a weak player against a strong player. For the weak player, coin flip gambles are a good bet, since that's better than they do on average. So they increase their chances of winning by making even-money bets.
Similarly, a good player is giving up their skill advantage if they make even money bets against a weaker player -- so their probability of winning the tournament would decrease.
