| I didn't go through all your numbers, but shouldn't you take into account the payouts for first and second place and work them into your calculations as to which is better from an EV standpoint? Regardless, I would be inclined to agree with your line of thinking. If the chip count is close and the blinds are relatively small, why take coinflips that can damage your stack when you think you can outplay your opponent? If the blinds are large, though, you may as well call. I remember a thread on 2+2 from one of the online sng pros, gigabet, and he said he would fold even if pot odds were in his favor if he knew he can out play his opponents and he wanted to be the one betting and raising, not calling. Of course if you have a big chip lead, it would be worth it to call to bust the player as you can afford to gamble a little.
G$ | 
