Weak play or smart move?

[JM]

I think you were right to laydown the QQ. A VERY tough decision to make though 4 handed with such a good starting hand. I was surprised how quickly you actually decided to chuck it. I think it would have taken me a bit longer. Calling at that point is the same as going all in, and folding it only loses you 450, but leaves you with a decent amount of chips to not get blinded out too soon and maybe steal a few blinds.

Chipper's play seemed to be right as well, since it looked like Space was trying to scare the rest of you guys off the hand and take out Seitz. I was surprised at some of the kinda loose calls Space was making. Most of them worked out though, but seemed like you were gambling a bit there.

[SpaceMonkey]

Originally Posted by chipper57AA

OK so who thinks that I was wrong to re-raise all-in with my QQ when Seitz went all-in with 195 chips and SpaceMonkey raised it 600. I assumed Seitz may have had a non-premium hand (perhaps an Ace) and I assumed that I'd be facing at least 1 overcard to my Queens.

My thought was that Spacemonkey did not have AA or KK and was hoping he would either fold to my overbet or hope he would call with AK and miss the board.

I saw that hand as an early opportunity to take a lead. I fell short on the turn when the overcard hit.

So was it a bad play?

Not a bad play at all. Let's look at it from another perspective though:

PokerStars Game #2234324280: Tournament #10526008, Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2005/07/31 - 22:24:13 (ET)
Table '10526008 2' Seat #8 is the button

scottoc316 - t4125
SpeakEasy - t1020
VARoadstter - t870
CaptLego - t2550
Seitz333 - t195
SpaceMonkey3 - t1780
chipper Button - t1770
jojobinks - t1190

PREFLOP Level IV (50/100)
SpaceMonkey3 is MP3 with A K
3 folds, Seitz333 raises t95 to t195, SpaceMonkey3 raises t405 to t600, chipper raises t1170 to t1770, 2 folds, SpaceMonkey3 calls t1170.


Blinds are 50-100 and 8 people are still left. Scott has a big lead, and Seitz has less than 2bb. He pushes and I reraise to 6xbb. You say your read is very strong that I do not have AA or KK. Interesting. Is that because I didn't push? I certainly raised to isolate. What range did you really put me on? AA-TT, AK, maybe AQs?

What range did you really put Seitz on? Ax, Kx, any PP?

Your reraise all in still gives me almost 2.5:1. If you put me on AK, you know I can't fold here. Given my hand, and my range for Seitz, It's more likely you have QQ than AA or KK.

You could call here and see the flop. It leaves you with 1100, about as much as VA and jojo, and a little more than SpeakEasy.

Is your question more results driven? How likely did you think I had AK and would call, vs. JJ, TT, AQ, Ax and would fold? Are AA and KK really 0% here? Up against AK, you're risking all your chips early with a 52-42 percent chance of winning (not too exact).

Again, you said your strategy here was to give yourself a chance to take a good lead (or in this case catch up to scott). If that's the case, your push is fine. Don't dwell on the result. I don't think I'm being too clear, but maybe some of my points are other things to digest when this situation comes up again. Maybe you already considered them all. I'll stop rambling now.

As for my call here, I was about 80% certain I was up against QQ. With the odds, its an insta-call. If Seitz woke up here with a super premium hand that kills my odds, so be it.

[TheMightyJim2k]

not to speak for chipper because obviously he knows what he was thinking better than anyone else,

BUT

I think in this situation you are right to push in with QQ because it is pretty obvious you do not have AA or KK. If you had AA or KK you would likely call and attempt to pick up a big pot if ...

1. someone tried to raise you out before the flop,

OR

2. you would be calling realizing that the mainpot is not very juicy, but being headsup in a side pot would give you tremendous odds, and winning just one bet after the flop would more than make up for any freak occurrences if seitz catches a hand.

BUT (!!!!) you did not call and try to limp, you raised which indicated enough strength to try to win a small pot off of seitz, but you obviously were not trying to set a trap. if you arent setting a trap then you probably dont have a AA or KK, and most likely are in the range of TT to AK or suited AQ. In this case chipper has a lead over all of those hands, but obviously AK is the most dangerous for him. He probably viewed it as a move-in in which you might call with odds stacked against you with JJ or AQ suited, and at worst you call with AK in which he is still a favorite on a large pot.

If he puts you on AK even as much as 40% of the time it would still be a profitable play based on his odds against all of you other possible hands.

So i think that chippers play was a solid one. However let it be noted that profitable plays are not always the smartest plays in tournaments since once you are out you cant go reaching for the wallet. Sometimes you have to lay down a big hand if you think you have the best of it at the table, but I don't think that was the case here as it seems as though most of you were pretty evenly matched.

just my 2cents

[SpaceMonkey]

Originally Posted by TheMightyJim2k

not to speak for chipper because obviously he knows what he was thinking better than anyone else,

BUT

I think in this situation you are right to push in with QQ because it is pretty obvious you do not have AA or KK. If you had AA or KK you would likely call and attempt to pick up a big pot if ...

I agree with this basic strategy. I know this would be the standard play, and I know chipper probably thinks that too.

That's precisely why I'd make the same raise with AA or KK here against this particular table.

[TheMightyJim2k]

hope you guys dont think I am butting in on your final table analysis. Even though I didn't see it or play in it I just find it interesting to break down the strategy and try to figure out people's thought process...however if I paid any attention to Caro's Book of Tells I would realize that all of that can be a big waste of time as we are all human an tend to act on impulses or whims whenever we get to a tough decision.

I think that is why everyone on here spends so much money on chips...

"should i pharaohs or AmerBeauts or custom ASMs or custom Chipcos....why not all of them?!?"

[SpaceMonkey]

Originally Posted by TheMightyJim2k

hope you guys dont think I am butting in on your final table analysis. Even though I didn't see it or play in it I just find it interesting to break down the strategy and try to figure out people's thought process...however if I paid any attention to Caro's Book of Tells I would realize that all of that can be a big waste of time as we are all human an tend to act on impulses or whims whenever we get to a tough decision.

I think that is why everyone on here spends so much money on chips...

"should i pharaohs or AmerBeauts or custom ASMs or custom Chipcos....why not all of them?!?"

I don't mind at all. I like the fact that someone else is adding to these strategy discussions.

[SpeakEasy]

Originally Posted by SpaceMonkey

What range did you really put me on? AA-TT, AK, maybe AQs?

The range of hands that I put you on here would be the same range of hands that you would open-raise with, because Seitz is so short-stacked and might push with any single high card.

[SpeakEasy]

Originally Posted by TheMightyJim2k

if I paid any attention to Caro's Book of Tells I would realize that all of that can be a big waste of time as we are all human an tend to act on impulses or whims whenever we get to a tough decision.

I think that is why everyone on here spends so much money on chips...

This was our biggest tournament to date, and I don't think there were any impulsive decisions at this table. (Except maybe for the VARbot.)

[TheMightyJim2k]

yeah i guess i should clarify...

caro wouldnt say that the decisions were impulsive, just that they are affected by much more than logical progression and analysis of playing style, betting history, and hand history. obviously things like what mood you are in, whether you have to go to the bathroom, if you are tired, if you are excited, if you feel lucky, or if you are on tilt all impact your decision. sometimes they are very small factors, but when added up they definitely show why two exact same hands could be played totally different by the same people in the same situation.

that is why he places such an importance on tells, because they are not an analysis of someone's actions based on what you think the should or would do, but an analysis of what their action actually mean based on physical or verbal clues. Tells that indicate the strength or weakness of your hand or bet are the same regardless of what led you to make the decision.

Of course all of this is irrelevent to online poker because no too many people's avatars or handles give away info

[chipper57AA]

Good discussion. Thanks for all the feedback.

I knew it was a risk and I was willing to do it. Turns out it let me be a spectator for the rest of the event. So be it.

Next time would I do it again. My answer is: depends

If I were closer to the end of the tournament I might have done the exact same thing.

Just goes to show ya, no matter what your strategy is, you're still at the mercy of the cards once you go all-in.