Weak play or smart move?

[scottoc]

Alternate title: I am Phil Hellmuth

PokerStars Game #2234553402: Tournament #10526008, Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2005/07/31 - 22:49:14 (ET)
Table '10526008 2' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: scottoc316 (2605 in chips)
Seat 3: VARoadstter (2315 in chips)
Seat 4: CaptLego (4755 in chips)
Seat 7: SpaceMonkey3 (3825 in chips)
VARoadstter: posts small blind 75
CaptLego: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to scottoc316 [Qc Qs]
VARoadstter said, "excellent laydown boys"
SpaceMonkey3: folds
SpaceMonkey3 said, "KJo"
SpaceMonkey3 said, "wanted to call"
VARoadstter said, "no good"
VARoadstter said, "especially AFTER you folded em"
scottoc316: raises 300 to 450
scottoc316 said, "VA, do you always get a top 10 hand when shortstacked in the bb?"
VARoadstter: raises 1865 to 2315 and is all-in
CaptLego: calls 2165
scottoc316: folds
scottoc316 said, "r u kidding me?"
VARoadstter said, "ruh roh"
*** FLOP *** [9d Ah 5h]
VARoadstter said, "8"
VARoadstter said, " 8"
VARoadstter said, " 8"
VARoadstter said, " 8"
VARoadstter said, " 8"
*** TURN *** [9d Ah 5h] [Th]
VARoadstter said, "please"
SpaceMonkey3 said, "8"
VARoadstter said, "please"
*** RIVER *** [9d Ah 5h Th] [6s]
scottoc316 said, "layed down Q,Q"
VARoadstter said, "sht"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
VARoadstter: shows [8s 8d] (a pair of Eights)
CaptLego: shows [Kc Ac] (a pair of Aces)
CaptLego collected 5080 from pot
SpaceMonkey3 said, "gg"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5080 | Rake 0
Board [9d Ah 5h Th 6s]
Seat 1: scottoc316 (button) folded before Flop
Seat 3: VARoadstter (small blind) showed [8s 8d] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 4: CaptLego (big blind) showed [Kc Ac] and won (5080) with a pair of Aces
Seat 7: SpaceMonkey3 folded before Flop (didn't bet)


Whadaya think?

[jojobinks]

weak.

if Var raises all in with pairs 88 and up, AK (suited or not) and AJs-AQs, and lego only calls with AA-KK, or AK, you're 31% to win.

it costs you 1900 to win 4900. i believe that makes it a call.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 32.9135 % 31.42% 01.49% { QQ }
Hand 2: 23.5961 % 21.06% 02.54% { 88+, AJs+, AKo }
Hand 3: 43.4903 % 40.18% 03.31% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

but i'm not big on making hellmuthian plays.

[scottoc]

just seemed like a pokerstars sucker call. Pretty much figured there were 2 overs if not an over pr already. No way I lay that down live.

[SpaceMonkey]

At the same time, if finishing in the top three was your main goal, the laydown here was okay.

And use the freaking hand converter!

[SpeakEasy]

The answer depends on your goal.

1. If your goal is to make the final 3 and qualify for the TOC, then I lay it down.

2. If your goal is to win the tournament, then I call.

Scott starts with 2605 and raises to 450, leaving 2155. When the action gets back to him, the call would put him all in. If he calls and Lego wins the hand, then he's is out. If he calls and VAR wins the hand, then he's severely crippled and effectively out. So, this is do or die.

Range of hands -- I would assume that neither player has a hand that involves a queen, so that rules out AQ and QQ. With a raise, an all-in re-raise and a call, I assume that one of the two players has AA, KK or AK. Maybe generally a bad assumption 4-handed, but that would be my assumption. The level of play and importance of this tournament for the players backs up my assumption that one of the hands is AA, KK or AK.

At this point, if your goal is to make the final three, it doesn't matter what the pot odds are -- if you I lose to either player, you're out. However, if VAR gets knocked out, then you're golden.

If you want to win the money, then you call and hope its AK (and that he doesn't hit), or that they are jumping in with solid but slightly lower hands like JJ or TT. Jojo ran the numbers above, but I would assume no AQ and QQ in the mix.

If it were my decision, I would have folded, because my main goal here was top 3 rather than win the money. Once I made the final 3 here, then I would focus on winning. You won't hear me say that for any other tournament we play except the QTOCs. And, there are plenty of softer SNGs you can play later for the money.

[VARoadstter]

I was very surprized you laid it down. I'm pretty sure I'd call but I can see how you'd feel like your queens weren't safe with an all-in and a call.

As for my all-in - right now it's not looking too good. I was hoping to pick up the antes and didn't want any callers. I'm actually pretty surprized that I got called with AK. Of course, if he hadn't called then you would have called me with the QQ and my results would have been the same.

Brutal hand to get when we're down to four handed, eh?

[CaptLego]

Originally Posted by VARoadstter

I was very surprized you laid it down. I'm pretty sure I'd call but I can see how you'd feel like your queens weren't safe with an all-in and a call.

As for my all-in - right now it's not looking too good. I was hoping to pick up the antes and didn't want any callers. I'm actually pretty surprized that I got called with AK. Of course, if he hadn't called then you would have called me with the QQ and my results would have been the same.

Brutal hand to get when we're down to four handed, eh?

Well, I was sitting in the BB with AKs. I'd pretty much planned coming in for a big raise. So scottoc came in for a std raise, and VA over the top all-in. I read VA's play as a move on the blinds and scottoc's bet. I figured VA could have a reasonably wide range of hands, but probably not AA or KK. So I figured I was 50+% to win against VA's range of hands.

Even money, and a chance to knock one of you guys out was good enough for me, because I didn't figure to outplay you in the longrun. The fact that I had about 2:1 chipstack made that an easy call for me, since I'd still be alive if I lost.

Then I thought about scottoc behind me, yet to act, having opened for a raise, and being given 2:1 pot odds. I thought about raising, to either try to push him out of the pot, or make sure he'd be all-in if he called. I decided that he was basically all-in anyhow with a call. I thought about folding, in case he had a monster. Mostly, though, I expected him to fold anyhow, (being on the bubble facing a lot of strength). In the end, I decided that it didn't make much difference what he did and I didn't care if he called or not.

I figured that to have any chance at this thing, I'd have to gamble and maybe catch some cards. This seemed like a good time to do it, so I did -- and luckily, I did.

I don't know if I made the right play or not, but that's what I was thinking and fortunately for me it worked out.

[TheMightyJim2k]

even though your pot odds were correct to call, the blinds were not huge and with a fold you still had the opportunity to win the tourney. I think if you trust in your skill and abilities that you made the right read on the bubble. You want to survive and you also believe that you can get in a more profitable situation later on in the tournament.

I think Cloutier covers this best in his book with McEvoy. Even though the pot is often giving you odds to chase, it is often more profitable in no limit hold'em tournaments to wait on situations where the odds are really stacked in your favor. Obviously in a cash game any time you have a slight edge you want to bet or call. But in a tourney it is often times the right play to lay down a slight edge on the pot odds when your hand is less than 50% to actually win the hand, and a loss will knock you out.

Summary: sometimes you gamble in that situation: with high blinds, low stack, or huge stack.

sometimes when the stacks are pretty even, you are on the bubble, and you might be knocked out, you shouldnt gamble.

GOOD LAYDOWN

[chipper57AA]

OK so who thinks that I was wrong to re-raise all-in with my QQ when Seitz went all-in with 195 chips and SpaceMonkey raised it 600. I assumed Seitz may have had a non-premium hand (perhaps an Ace) and I assumed that I'd be facing at least 1 overcard to my Queens.

My thought was that Spacemonkey did not have AA or KK and was hoping he would either fold to my overbet or hope he would call with AK and miss the board.

I saw that hand as an early opportunity to take a lead. I fell short on the turn when the overcard hit.

So was it a bad play?

[TheMightyJim2k]

I think your (Chipper) situation is a little different.

1. You were the aggressor and that gives you increased equity that you gain from Spacemonkey possibly folding. As you did not put him on a premium pair you have to believe that there is some chance he will fold, and if he doesnt you are ahead of anything he calls. Your equity is always better when you are the agressor. THere is a huge difference between moving your stack in vs. calling your stack off.

2. You were not on the bubble and going out in that position is not nearly the same as going out in 4th and missing out on 3rd place money.

3. If you win the hand you take a chip lead at the table that you might be able to ride into the money.

As it is spacemonkey had the best hand (AK) out of the range you gave him credit for. You believed he couldnt have AA or KK, and if that is the case then you are a big favorite over every hand except AK, which you are still a slight favorite over. You ran in to the worst case scenario (he has two live overcards) and you just didnt get lucky.

I think in this case you made a strong play with a good read and it just didnt work out.