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Originally Posted by KYBill OOYAH! Math Rocks! (even if i get the wrong answer and think my odds are better than they are thus causes me to win the pot ) |
HA! Amen brother.
I counted the Aces as outs because as I said I put him on Ax
or a mid-high pair. So Although I didn't have faith in an ace helping, I thought it was a slim possibility. So in my odds I included it.
I did include all four 5s simply thinking that all four help me. One might hurt me, but he also likely doesn't have suited hole cards. That's not being conservative, I know, but that's how I thought about.
Going over this, maybe in the future I shouldn't include a card that can potentially hurt or help me (depending on what my opponent holds) as an out. Big case for that, but I would also think there is a big case for when it is a judgement call. I'd love to hear thoughts on this.*
So given the above, I have 7 outs maximum. 6 if I don't want to count the Ace I think he may have, but I included it b/c I'm not convinced he has it and I'm willing to risk a little.
So at this point, my odds are roughly 19% to get an out, right? (52-(2*5 players)-1 burn card-3 flop cards)=38... 31/38=18.42% - I'm doing that correct aren't I? If not I'm happy to be told different!
Ok, so the pot is t4800 when it comes to me. If I bet I have 3:1 odds vs 18% to hit an out card. But I also figure in my implied odds: he has <t1600 left so I figure if I call this then I'm going to force him all in on the next round which makes the return t6400... but I have to put in t1600 now and t1600 next round... AH!!! Thanks. So I'm only doubling my money ultimately, but I have an 18% chance to get an out that can win it....
Ok thanks for the criticism and making me post this. I learned a few things!
I would like to hear more about the item I *'d above.
