[Clonexx]

You are not doing the math right.

You can not discount the cards that have already been dealt out, they are unknowns and could contain ALL of your outs for all you know.

You have to go based ONLY on what cards you can see. You can see your 2 hole cards and the 3 flop cards. You now have to base your calculations on the remaining 47 unseen cards, not the 38 number you came up with.

As far as discounting outs, I suggest you read Small Stakes Holdem by Sklansky. There is a chapter that focuses solely on discounting outs. In a hand like yours, Sklansky would have given you a total of 4 outs at most, making the flop an easy fold.