Why I love math

[Wooderson]

Saw Flop | Saw Turn | Saw River | Saw Showdown | Won

PokerStars Game #2212976192: Tournament #10636584, Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2005/07/29 - 01:54:40 (ET)
Table '10636584 3' Seat #2 is the button

reyogold - t6346
mattygee Button - t6380
Wooderson316 - t14952
Quite Storm - t8815
ukwildcat88 - t4007

PREFLOP Level X (400/800)
Wooderson316 is SB with A 4
ukwildcat88 calls t800, reyogold calls t800, 1 fold, Wooderson316 calls t400, Quite Storm checks.

FLOP t3450.00 (4 players)
3 9 2
Wooderson316 checks, Quite Storm checks, ukwildcat88 bets t1600, 1 fold...

Ok, a break in the action, b/c this is where the hand was won.

I have a closed straight draw... overall not good odds. The table is all low, so I put him on Ax or mid-high pair b/c he only bets 2xBB. But man, I have to have an A or a 5, but I'm thinking an A may not cut it. So ok, math time... basically my odds were 19% at this point to win. There's t5000 in the pot with his raise so I have to raise just over 20% - I'm a slight dog vs. the pot. Ok, call...


Wooderson316 calls t1600, 1 fold.

TURN t6650.00 (2 players)
3 9 2 2

Ok, so I'm still basically at 19% to get an A or a 5. Heck, I'll put him all-in with a 2xBB bet and that's a no-brainer b/c now my pot-odds are better than my odds to make the hand. And he HAS to call it.

Wooderson316 bets t1600, ukwildcat88 calls t1557.

RIVER t9807.00 (2 players)
3 9 2 2 5


This is where I celebrated like Phil Ivey: no change in facial expression, but an internal BOOYAH! Math Rocks!

SHOW DOWN
Wooderson316 shows A 4
ukwildcat88 shows 7 A
Wooderson316 collected t9764 from pot

Final Pot: t9764

[coyote]

Why are you counting on A as an out? I thought you put him on Ax....

You figuring the 9 will play for the kicker and you're going to split?

You weren't 4:1 going into the river. At best you had 6 outs, 2 of which were hopefully for a split pot. Unless you want to count your 3 outs for the 4's. but hindsight's 20/20

[Clonexx]

Your math is a bit off....

On the flop, once he bets the 1600, you are being laid about 3:1 on your money.

However, your out count is off. If you are putting him on Ax, then your ace outs are more then likely not good. Discounting them, I would give you 1 out for the aces, which is generous. Then you take the 4 5s that complete your wheel draw. One of those 5s also completes a flush now, so you have to discount that as well, giving you maybe 3 outs for the wheel draw.

Total, you have about 4 outs. You need the pot to lay you much better odds then this to continue with the hand.

On the turn, you are now getting about 4:1 on your money, your pot odds are not there to make your hand. If you were going to put him all in, you should have done it on the flop with 2 cards to come, not on the turn with only 1 to come if you were going to do it at all.

Personally, I fold the flop. I can see chasing a flush draw in this situation, but not a weak gutshot.

[KYBill]

Originally Posted by coyote

Why are you counting on A as an out? I thought you put him on Ax....

You figuring the 9 will play for the kicker and you're going to split?

You weren't 4:1 going into the river. At best you had 6 outs, 2 of which were hopefully for a split pot. Unless you want to count your 3 outs for the 4's. but hindsight's 20/20

OOYAH! Math Rocks! (even if i get the wrong answer and think my odds are better than they are thus causes me to win the pot )

[Wooderson]

Originally Posted by KYBill

OOYAH! Math Rocks! (even if i get the wrong answer and think my odds are better than they are thus causes me to win the pot )

HA! Amen brother.

I counted the Aces as outs because as I said I put him on Ax or a mid-high pair. So Although I didn't have faith in an ace helping, I thought it was a slim possibility. So in my odds I included it.

I did include all four 5s simply thinking that all four help me. One might hurt me, but he also likely doesn't have suited hole cards. That's not being conservative, I know, but that's how I thought about.

Going over this, maybe in the future I shouldn't include a card that can potentially hurt or help me (depending on what my opponent holds) as an out. Big case for that, but I would also think there is a big case for when it is a judgement call. I'd love to hear thoughts on this.*

So given the above, I have 7 outs maximum. 6 if I don't want to count the Ace I think he may have, but I included it b/c I'm not convinced he has it and I'm willing to risk a little.

So at this point, my odds are roughly 19% to get an out, right? (52-(2*5 players)-1 burn card-3 flop cards)=38... 31/38=18.42% - I'm doing that correct aren't I? If not I'm happy to be told different!

Ok, so the pot is t4800 when it comes to me. If I bet I have 3:1 odds vs 18% to hit an out card. But I also figure in my implied odds: he has <t1600 left so I figure if I call this then I'm going to force him all in on the next round which makes the return t6400... but I have to put in t1600 now and t1600 next round... AH!!! Thanks. So I'm only doubling my money ultimately, but I have an 18% chance to get an out that can win it....

Ok thanks for the criticism and making me post this. I learned a few things!

I would like to hear more about the item I *'d above.

[Clonexx]

You are not doing the math right.

You can not discount the cards that have already been dealt out, they are unknowns and could contain ALL of your outs for all you know.

You have to go based ONLY on what cards you can see. You can see your 2 hole cards and the 3 flop cards. You now have to base your calculations on the remaining 47 unseen cards, not the 38 number you came up with.

As far as discounting outs, I suggest you read Small Stakes Holdem by Sklansky. There is a chapter that focuses solely on discounting outs. In a hand like yours, Sklansky would have given you a total of 4 outs at most, making the flop an easy fold.

[jojobinks]

Originally Posted by Clonexx

You are not doing the math right.

You can not discount the cards that have already been dealt out, they are unknowns and could contain ALL of your outs for all you know.

You have to go based ONLY on what cards you can see. You can see your 2 hole cards and the 3 flop cards. You now have to base your calculations on the remaining 47 unseen cards, not the 38 number you came up with.

As far as discounting outs, I suggest you read Small Stakes Holdem by Sklansky. There is a chapter that focuses solely on discounting outs. In a hand like yours, Sklansky would have given you a total of 4 outs at most, making the flop an easy fold.

personally, i suggest you read small stakes holdem by Ed Miller. that's just me, though.

[dad604]

I think you can count on the A for 1/2 of an out but even with that the math still does not add up for calling.

But the main thing is you won.

[KYBill]

Originally Posted by Wooderson

HA! Amen brother.

I counted the Aces as outs because as I said I put him on Ax or a mid-high pair. So Although I didn't have faith in an ace helping, I thought it was a slim possibility. So in my odds I included it.

I did include all four 5s simply thinking that all four help me. One might hurt me, but he also likely doesn't have suited hole cards. That's not being conservative, I know, but that's how I thought about.

Going over this, maybe in the future I shouldn't include a card that can potentially hurt or help me (depending on what my opponent holds) as an out. Big case for that, but I would also think there is a big case for when it is a judgement call. I'd love to hear thoughts on this.*

So given the above, I have 7 outs maximum. 6 if I don't want to count the Ace I think he may have, but I included it b/c I'm not convinced he has it and I'm willing to risk a little.

So at this point, my odds are roughly 19% to get an out, right? (52-(2*5 players)-1 burn card-3 flop cards)=38... 31/38=18.42% - I'm doing that correct aren't I? If not I'm happy to be told different!

Ok, so the pot is t4800 when it comes to me. If I bet I have 3:1 odds vs 18% to hit an out card. But I also figure in my implied odds: he has <t1600 left so I figure if I call this then I'm going to force him all in on the next round which makes the return t6400... but I have to put in t1600 now and t1600 next round... AH!!! Thanks. So I'm only doubling my money ultimately, but I have an 18% chance to get an out that can win it....

Ok thanks for the criticism and making me post this. I learned a few things!

I would like to hear more about the item I *'d above.

I was just giving you a hard time


I do my math wrong all the time !!!!! So don't feel bad.

I feel I'm good at numbers but i don't want to take forever calculating my odds when i know that may be a tell I'm on a draw of some kind.

I think the important thing is you are using pot odds and that gives you a great advantage in the long run.

[Wooderson]

Ok, so when calculating odd against me, I can only discount the cards I can seen. If other cards are out but I don't know what they are (other players' hole cards, the burn card), they don't get subtracted.

Wow... somehow I've been using my messed up method and doing well. Yeah for luck... time to hammer on skill.