| I agree, (in response to shmag) BUT, with the chips the way they were, it was all-in or fold for me. A solid raise was going to do nothing for me, as my stack was under 3x the big blind.
Perhaps the most relevant question is this: How do you assign odds on the SB doubling up on the BB if I fold, with 2 random hands? Because if he doesn't bust, then I'm in a very precarious position.
Is it worth folding the Ace for a 50% shot that the SB busts? This is where I'm not very good, the math needed to determine tourney equity or whatever.
I guess if I fold, 50% of the time SB busts and I win $100.
50% of the time he doubles through, and now it's 60/40 that I win 2nd.
I'm not taking in to account any odds that I end up winning, they seem pretty slight due to stack sizes.
If I raise all in, I'm 60% to double up, 40% to bust out in 3rd. If I double up I gotta figure I'm about 95% to take second.
50%*100 + 50%*(60%*100 + 40%*50) = $90 (folding)
40%*50 + 60%*(95%*100 + 5%*50) = $78.50 (raising all in)
Does this math make any sense? I pretty much made it up  | 
