[Fins]

Originally Posted by schmag

I disagree, since Merlin was the caller in every round except the river I cannot put him on A 10; would he continue to call with second pair? Craiture has bet at the pot on the flop, and the turn, and with a straight and flush out there I cannot see Merlin calling continually with second pair on that board. With a pair of tens I think he would have raised on the flop or turn to see where he stands, I mean with that board and A 10 in your hand even if you hit the river you could be drawing dead since another 10 or pairing your A is still beaten by a straight. Of course I am assuming that both players are solid and not new players who will feed the pot and chase draws despite the odds.

To me this suggests that Merlin had a drawing hand, a flush/straight draw on the flop maybe. Then on the turn when the straight card comes, Merlin calls because he wants to get one more round of betting and so far he can let Craiture do the raising. And it would be tough to put Craiture on a drawing hand due to all the betting, it is more likely he has a made hand but did not want to give free cards to a hand that would beat him. Then the river comes and no flush is there, Craiture fires again and Merlin raises because he knows his straight is now good but gives Craiture pot odds, hoping to get a call and a little more money.

At least that is my analysis, I sure would like to know what actually happened though!

At the time I was thinking J-9 (or A-9 on the flush draw maybe?).... Merlin??

I guess the preflop call was questionable with no limps & 1 min raiser but I fig'd I'd gamboool.
On that board I felt I should have raised the pot (not 2/3) but I thought I'd wait til the turn which was no help

Bet the turn to see where I was and got a call... immediately thought uh oh 9! (seemed like a bigger monster under the bed, maybe)... just didn't think he had the flush draw for some reason.

Wanted to check the river but thought if he missed his flush being short stacked he might risk an all-in bluff so I bet the least amount I thought would keep all but the 9 from pushing. Wasn't sure this bet was a good one given my stack size at the time (took me from 1000 ==> 700). Also, felt I had odds to call the river but didn't want to call myself out of the tourney and I _really_ thought he had the 9 but who knows could of been a nice bluff or TPGK thinkin' I was pushin' a draw.