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Originally Posted by Wooderson I'm with Jojo.
I'm curious though how you figured out your percentages of 70-30 dog. I've never been able to understand how to do that. |
Yeah, cardplayer uses a big Monte Carlo simulation to spit out probabilities of certain hands winning. That's why the numbers don't come up exactly the same each time you run it, but it's close enough. It's pretty cool if you've never checked it out. You can even set up situations with up to 5 players in the hand and look at odds pre-flop, post-flop, and on the turn.
As it turns out, a dominated ace (or any other card for that matter) and one overcard to a pair are both roughly 70-30 dogs. If he had AA up against my A9s, I'm almost a 90-10 dog, that's the worst case.
I guess it's one of those things that could've gone either way depending on the read. If I put a higher probablility on him holding one of the hands that makes me 30%, it's a fold. But if I also weigh in a greater chance of him holding a small PP, or being on a bluff, etc., my "odds" in my head could be 60-40 against. In that case, by a pure odds analysis, I've got a call.
