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Originally Posted by smoore I think this would be a good play about twice a year in a typical weekly home tournament where the winner and second play ~200 hands per tourn., i.e. about once every 5k hands or so. |
That's my point, though. I'm sure it works sometimes. The bigger question is whether or not it would drive more action away than it's worth. I can't prove it but it smells -EV to me.
Someone else mentioned that this same player might do it with a flush draw or some BS like that (doesn't realize that by playing back at you he'd be drawing dead). Great! You'd bust that guy 100% of the time if he did. Problem is that the bigger the bet is the higher the probability that the guy will ultimately decide that chasing just isn't worth it (and lets the hand go instead of trying to make a move on you). The "Fancy Play Syndrome" approach is still probably -EV.
Note - I'm not saying you could never try it. You may pick up some other signal that the guy is itching to get in a fight with you and then it may well be a great play. Absent any other "tells" though, I still think you're going to drive away the action.
Rereading your post, smoore, I will give grant you one of your points. If you haven't shown down a winner in a while and everyone is getting impatient you may also have a small opportunity to lay the smackdown on someone playing out of pure frustration. When you do that and you guess right you'll feel like a genius. When they continue to run away you'll just have to fantasize about "what might have been".
